The last piece was a bit ‘too obvious’ talking about the top of the market and the champions returning. Here’s five selections that are a little more from left field. Ones you may not need or want to back just yet but worth considering perhaps.
Aspire Tower – Champion Hurdle – 50/1
Re-watch the Triumph Hurdle, he jumped really poorly, often to the left and he hung that way a bit too. Something was amiss, it was far from his best effort, yet he still finished 2nd. The fall in his previous run surely didn’t help. And he had been on the go a long time having come off the flat before Henry sent him jumping. Described as a scopey horse who’ll be better physically this season. I know they all say that, but as a 4yo coming off the flat it’s interesting.
Goes to Down Royal first for that second season hurdle (Coeur Sublime won it last yr) and may avoid Abacadabras & Honeysuckle then by going down what I call the Espoir D’Allen route picking up weaker G3 races. A few victories are likely and would see him enter what is not a particularly deep Champion Hurdle picture.
Presenting Percy – Gold Cup – 25/1
Pat Kelly to Gordon Elliott is a massive trainer upgrade. Now for the excuses: He finished lame when going off fav in the 2019 GC. Twelve months later the slow pace in last year’s GC would not have suited but he still wasn’t too far away when falling 2-out.
Davy’s style of riding him, especially over 3miles at Leopardstown, makes things difficult for him. They often go slow and he stays further yet Davy rides him patiently. He was very easy on him in the Savills Chase and then made his effort too early in the IGC. They went slow enough on both occasions – he needs a good test of stamina.
3m2f at Cheltenham, off a decent pace with some cut in the ground, ideal. Just like his RSA Chase victory (Monalee & Al Boum Photo behind). When/If it all falls right for him I think there’s a big pot left in him. Hopefully the talk of a Grand National doesn’t mean he’s not off until April.
Asterion Forlonge – Marsh Chase – 33/1
This one is risky/foolish. Don’t forget Asterion Forlonge went off favourite for the Supreme. At the Dublin Racing Festival he beat Easywork 9L. Easywork had won 3 in a row and then went and got within 4L of Envoi Allen when beating everything else in the Ballymore.
In the Supreme AF jumped violently to his right. Giving away so much ground at each hurdle that finishing 4th between Chantry House & Allart can be deemed a good effort; he has a huge engine. Prior to that Cheltenham hiccup and his G1 success at Leopardstown he won a ptp, bumper and maiden hurdle. Perfect 4 from 4. He did jump consistently to his right which is a worry, but nothing compared to the Cheltenham efforts and hopefully fences will straighten him up a bit.
The owners also have Shishkin (Arkle) and The Big Getaway (RSA) and if they all turn out to be G1 animals and stay fit through to Cheltenham I think Asterion Forlonge looks the one to be suited by the middle-distance. It’s a high risk ante-post bet though as if he keeps up his habit of jumping to the right a path via Fairyhouse & Punchestown without Cheltenham is easy to plot.
Notebook – Champion Chase – 33/1
Went off fav for the Arkle (I thought he was a bet at as low as 5/2) after winning 4 in a row. Beaten 27L into 6th it clearly wasn’t his true running. He had a false start and then missed the standing start, it wouldn’t have helped. The ground may have been a bit slow and soft for him also. Ahead of him the front two pulled clear with Fakir D’oudairies beaten 1.5L. At Leopardstown Notebook beat him the same distance giving him a 7lb weight for age allowance as well. Hard not to think that the very best of Notebook would’ve went close in Cheltenham.
At Notebook’s Arkle prep in February he bolted before the start so I’m happy to mark up the win a little. Henry made an interesting point that Cash Back who ran him close that day also ran well below par at Cheltenham, perhaps both feeling the effects of a tough battle. Cash Back, like Notebook, also semi-bolted at the false-start.
In a race with question-marks over all the top few I’m happy to put a line through Notebook’s Arkle effort and back him here on the form that made him Arkle fav. A year with no crowds at the racecourse might actually suit him.
Cobblers Way – RSA Chase – 50/1
Inspired by Notebook; a Gigginstown novice chaser that you wouldn’t necessarily have picked based on hurdles form.
A Midnight Run comeback would be interesting. His bumper form was top drawer. Beacon Edge is another I like but he looks to be staying over hurdles.
Assemble – from Joseph’s stable tour: “He’s a big horse that always looked the type to do better over fences and his schooling over them has been very good so far”. It took a while but when he opened his bumper account it was at the expense of Appreciate It & Eskylane. A maiden hurdle followed before credible efforts behind Latest Exhibition and Five O’Clock. That’s solid form so if you believe what Joseph says there’s a chance he makes up into a G1 chaser.
Cobblers Way has strong form and certainly looks to be a big staying chaser. A ptp 2nd was followed by a bumper win and then 212P over hurdles. The 2’s were behind Andy Dufresne and Latest Exhibition and the win was at the expense of Sempo & The Big Getaway. Strong form; if he finds another 10lbs over hurdles he’s a G1 animal – in Henry’s yard there’s no better place going chasing. If he turns out to be really good he’ll go for the RSA so that’s what I’ll back him for. The NH Chase always a possible target too.
Ok now I’m definitely done writing about Cheltenham for a few months. Focus on the more immediate stuff. Cobra de Mai at the weekend for example…
One thought on “Cheltenham 2021 – Longshots”