Friday
2.10 Wetherby
Louis Vac Pouch – wasn’t off a yard first time out. Jumped off behind, stayed behind and came home in his own time. Getting involved here will require a significant step forward but this seems to be a track where Kirby has plenty of success (and runners) so I expect more effort.
Now off 139 he was a decent 7th in the Festival Plate off 144 (final start of last season). Has won over hurdles off 132 (went up to 145) so the current handicap mark is okay. That hurdle win was over 3m but has plenty of winning form at 2m & 2m4f so this 2m3f should be fine. He wasn’t always trying when in Henry Oliver’s care.
Born Survivor is the danger. He won this in 2018 (off 139) and was 4th last year (off 152). Reappearing off 149 he could go close. He goes well fresh and the Skelton yard are going fairly well of late but soft ground would be an issue. 4/1 is short enough.
Happy Diva is 11lbs higher than when beaten into 2nd in this 12mts ago, she’ll need a career best. Two for Gold wants 3miles, this may be a Hennessy prep. Stable form is a worry for Joke Dancer. Both Huntsman Son & The Unit have been off for almost 2yrs so may be up against it first time.
4 places 12 runners is generous for those with a Skybet account. Not mad about backing this guy each-way myself.
1pt win Louis Vac Pouch 10/1
Down Royal
12.40 Farouk D’alene & 3.00 Envoi Allen don’t look sensible to oppose. Both should win impressively.
1.15 I want to oppose Queen’s Brook. 2miles on decent ground around Down Royal – I think she’ll find this too sharp and speedy to be at her best. And it’s not like her reappearance was brilliant. However all the same comments probably apply to Brave Way. She has no form at this minimum trip.
The Getaway Star is my pick. Her bumper form is decent. At Cork she defeated Getaway Gorgeous (now 130 hurdler) and before that defeated Larquebuse (won 3 times since). Trying to give 11lbs to Panic Attack was difficult at Market Rasen but finishing 2nd she beat home plenty of other winners. The yard have had a few run well without winning in recent weeks.
Assuming 8 runners it’s a fine race for an each-way bet.
1pt e/w The Getaway Star 14/1
1.50 Abacadabras is the second Elliott fav I want to oppose. I was on him for the Supreme and do rate him but will always find it easy to oppose him. He has a little quirk in him. He’s fairly genuine but certainly not tough. Was in front too soon at Cheltenham and would’ve been better having something to aim at. The other negative for him will always (until proved otherwise) be his jumping. It’s not always perfect and at Down Royal the last two hurdles are inside the 2f pole, the last 150yds out, and a mistake at either could be difficult to recover from. First time out giving 6/8lbs to mid-140 horses means he’ll need to run to a fair level first time out.
I wrote about Aspire Tower here: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2020/10/22/cheltenham-2021-longshots/
Given he jumped and hung left a touch last time I don’t want him here. Stablemate Jason the Militant was a 25/1 128 rated horse when taking a G2 in February. I’d like to see him do it again before I’d trust he’s up to this class. Heavy ground might’ve helped him that day at Naas too.
Sixshooter had really smart bumper form but disappointed a little last season after opening his account first time out. He looked to leave that level of form behind when beating Kilfenora 4L giving him 6lbs. Sixshooter didn’t jump brilliantly that day either so there may be more to come from him. As a result of the win, the handicapper upped him to 147, making him the second highest rated in here. He gets a few lbs off all and has the advantage of a hurdle race under his belt for sharpness.
Only the 7 runners so win only
1pt win Sixshooter 11/1
Cee Bee Scribbles 