During the National Hunt season, I always feel there is far too much focus on the Cheltenham Festival and not enough emphasis put on the day to day and mid-season highlights.
Also, with the competitive pricing and specials available on the day there is less of a need or desire to bet ante-post.
Yet here I am, over 2000 words on the Cheltenham Festival. I blame the constant covid bad news and restrictions for getting me in a bad mood and making me turn to ante-post betting for something distracting to do. Anyhow here are 15 races covered and 10 bets recommended which we will hopefully be collecting in just under 5mts time…
Supreme
Ferny Hollow – the best bumper horse we saw last year. More speed than the second best Appreciate It. Whilst same owner’s Ballyadam looks like he’ll be more of a stayer. 10/1 is fair. Eskylane & Bob Olinger likely to want staying trips also. Mares go for their own race. So best savers are:
Boothill 50/1 – was decent when winning a Kempton bumper that has worked out very well. His PTP 2nd was behind a smart one. Might be a stayer though so risky bet perhaps.
Uhtred 40/1 – strong bumper form before being put away. Was visually impressive at Navan showing real pace. Featured in a recent stable tour so assuming all is ok with him.
Bets – Ferny Hollow 10/1 & Uhtred 40/1
Arkle
Shishkin is too short for all that he looks super talented. Best price of 7/2 and hasn’t jumped a fence in public yet. Darver Star reached a higher level over hurdles and has already opened his account over fences.
Captain Guinness has just shown they are not machines. The exciting Pic D’Orhy was beaten on his chase debut also. The Capt G fans should be interested in Andy Dufresne & Elixir Dainay at 33/1.
The previous year’s Supreme winner could be interesting too, in Willie we trust – a Klassical Dream comeback anyone?
Eldorado Allen won at Newton Abbot and it’s decent form. He was in a tricky spot last year as a 6yo, twice raced non-maiden. Yet he ran to 150 twice before the Tizzard Festival flop. Footpad won an Arkle after an unimpressive hard to place 5yo hurdling campaign, this might be similar.
Cedarwood Road is a bet at a big price. Get away from all the 2019 Cheltenham novices taking all the hype. A real future chaser, a big weak 5yo campaigned with the future in mind. He won his last two hurdle starts and the form of his Naas listed win is strong enough to think he could go to the top over fences.
Bets – Cedarwood Road 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Goshen first – it’s hard for 5yos. It may have been a below par bunch of 4yos he raced against. More importantly the old course is hard for a poor jumping hurdler. Next.
Abacadabras – he might be really good, but he’s only 50:50 to actually go through with it at the death. A little harsh perhaps but he is not straightforward. Beaten in the Champion Bumper, Royal Bond & Supreme suggest maybe not absolutely top drawer, yet he’s 6/1 for a CH.
Epatante 9/2 – is the same age and has had the same number of starts as Abacadabras. There is loads left to come. She was impressive enough last year, beating the right horses the right distance to call it solid form despite being a weak renewal on paper. Does that make sense? It’s not a deep division. She rates a far better bet than many of the ‘hot novices’.
Bets – Epatante 9/2
Mares Hurdle
Honeysuckle 7/2 – is a true G1 hurdler, top drawer. I believe she would have been 1st or 2nd in the Champion Hurdle. There is only one other mare in here of that level – Benie des Dieux. But Henry’s mare is 3yrs younger so likely to maintain or increase her superiority over BdD. Bar she has a bad season, she’ll be anywhere from 1/2 (no Benie) to 2/1 on the day. She is probably a bet now to be honest.
Bets – Honeysuckle 7/2
National Hunt Chase
Gordon has won 3 of the last 6. Galvin is already as good a horse as the last two winners Le Breuil & Ravenhill. Nice profile for the race – loads of experience, decent Festival form, will have a top jockey, it is the target and trained for it from 6mts out. Trip the obvious question-mark. Likely to just shorten all the way to March (especially once qualified). Monkfish is too good to go this route and Latest Exhibition has loads of pace. Lord Royal is one I’d be interested in with Run Wild Fred not impressing on reappearance.
Bets – Galvin 14/1
Ballymore
There are a lot of likeable ones on this list, all of whom could yet go 2m or 3m. I’m happy to back speedy types for the Supreme at this stage but eager to leave this race alone. I also have a little theory that we missed some smart bumper horses appearing in Mar/Apr that would’ve started over hurdles this winter. The likes of Fiston des Issards, Gars de Sceaux or Sir Gerhard might still start in a bumper but Gordon might not waste the season with them either. Reason enough to leave this market alone for a while.
RSA
Envoi Allen more likely to go Marsh Chase rather than here but you would hate to back 2 or 3 here and then have Envoi turning up to smash them. Monkfish looks smart but 8/1 versus the 14/1 Latest Exhibition seems too much of a disparity. Can see why folk would like any of The Big Breakaway/Getaway, Mossy Fen, Chantry House so I’ll just stay going for now.
Queen Mother
Too many questions. Will Defi come back? Can Chacun stay fit and healthy? Is Altior done? Was the 2020 Arkle a good renewal? The Mares Chase & Ryanair might take the next few in the betting. If you took the 14/1 Defi & a saver on 5/1 CPS there’s a fair chance you’ll be on the fav at a good price. Or just have lost your money before Xmas. Next.
Cross Country
The right two head the market. That 2/1 Easysland might be more 4/6 on the day if things go well for him and he turns up in perfect health. If the Grand National really is the plan they should have him beat in the Cross Country in Nov & Dec. It looks like Tiger Roll is going to have a full and more normal campaign than the last two seasons.
Marsh Chase
Envoi Allen is plenty short now given there is no guarantee this will be his March target, or that he gets here in one piece or that something isn’t just a better chaser than him in Dec/Jan. I’d love to see Latest Exhibition have a go at him in the Drinmore or Flogas. Maybe Shiskin or Darver Star will want this trip on decent ground. The best of Chantry House or Sporting John will probably give JP a decent representative here too.
Ryanair Chase
Min is an elite level 2m4f chaser. A Ryanair, Melling & 2 John Durkan chases already in the bag. He is only 9 turning 10 and hasn’t had much racing. I think he idled a bit in front last year and might have been value for more. A straightforward sort with a similar season as last expected, this will be his target. You’ll need to turn up here and run to 170+ to beat him; not many can do that.
The Marsh is the obvious lead in to the Ryanair but last year’s first 3 home: Samcro, Melon & Faugheen were 8, 8 & 12 with plenty of racing behind them. They’ve a stone to find and are not the type of novice likely to find it next season.
A Plus Tard is 3yrs younger than Min and was having just his 3rd chase start out of novice company when finishing a close 3rd in the Ryanair. He missed his prep run due to quick ground at Leopardstown and on the day wasn’t his best. He just slightly missed a few fences and it cost him a few lengths. Like Min this is almost certainly his target (may start over 2m & try 3m once, King George?) and he’ll run to a fairly high level.
Owners of APT also have Allaho and despite him not truly getting home in the RSA, I think team Mullins will initially target the Gold Cup. He’s a big 6yr old with very little racing in him yet but I wonder will he be a bit tripless – not getting a tough 3miles but not having the pace for G1 2m4f chases?
Real Steel was flattered by a slowly run Gold Cup. I’d be surprised if he can take a G1 chase this year. Saint Calvados is a similar level, he benefitted from a great ride in the Ryanair but on overall form has a bit to find.
How many Festival markets have the returning champ (& 6 time G1 winner) at 10/1?
Bets – Min 10/1, A Plus Tard 12/1
Stayers Hurdle
I have to believe the Paisley Park’s excuses as his overall form is a stone better than what we saw in March. He went off 4/6. So, 7/1 to bounce back – there’s worse bets.
Thyme Hill and Fury Road are new recruits here from what looked a well above average Albert Bartlett. Sire du Berlais looks good enough, when trying, to make the jump to graded level.
Ronald Pump can benefit from a full season geared towards the Stayers Hurdle. He’s only 7 turning 8 and could’ve got a better ride in last year’s renewal.
Then there is Benie Des Dieux. Her Galmoy win last term was terrific and it wasn’t her first win at 3miles either (G1 Auteuil). I’d make her a shorter price to beat most of these than versus Honeysuckle over 2m4f.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Willie has won all 5 renewals and has had many placed mares as well.
Shewearsitwell has already ran to a standard that some of the winners did. She’s 3 from 3 and last time out looked very good beating 135-141 geldings with ease. Because it was Tipperary in October you are thinking she’s not one of Willie’s best or that it’s not Cheltenham quality form. That thinking is wrong.
Hook Up (has a bit to prove) and Brave Way (may not be a 2miler) are another two worth a second look. Princess Zoe might not go hurdling, Gypsy Island has to prove her well-being, Queens Brook looks more like a staying type.
Bets – Shewearsitwell 7/1
Gold Cup
It is well priced at the moment so no point spending too much time on it.
A greater test of stamina last March (they went very slow, on decent ground) probably would’ve seen Santini crowned. On just his 10th racecourse start. If he looks sluggish and drifts as a result of not getting a decent stamina test through the winter months I’ll be backing him then.
Minella Indo was the best novice chaser in the RSA. On just his 3rd chase start he was a bit fresh, went for home a bit early, got the last wrong and then idled. He usually badly needs his first run so again if it is a disappointing reappearance that is the time to play.
Mares Chase
It’s new so it’s interesting but ultimately, it’ll be a bad boring addition to the Festival.
Honeysuckle stays hurdling and I’d be amazed if Benie didn’t also. I think there is a reason Benie hasn’t jumped a fence since Feb’18. I’ve not heard the plan for Elfile but as a novice, who maybe wants further, she would be up against it here. Stormy Ireland hasn’t got her novice chasing campaign off to a great start.
I’d guess the QMCC is the plan for Put The Kettle On but a clash or two with Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown and some of the UK 2milers in the Shloer will tell connections where they stand before March. If backing her for this you want to see her beat a few times, but not badly beat obviously, which is a silly scenario to put yourself in so don’t back her for anything yet.
Salsaretta is very short for one who has done the majority of her winning in very weak mares only company. She looks good but with a rating of 148 is actually 5lbs behind a 20/1 shot in the market.
The course & distance winner (& placed) Happy Diva. She’ll be the unattractive exposed 10yo handicapper in this market but to me she’s arguably the best mare in the race. A repeat of her Plate 2nd would go a long way in what looks likely to be a race lacking depth.
Bets – Happy Diva 20/1
Summary:
Supreme – Ferny Hollow 10/1 & Uhtred 40/1
Arkle – Cedarwood Road 40/1
Champion – Epatante 9/2
Mares Hurdle – Honeysuckle 7/2
NH Chase – Galvin 14/1
Mares Nov Hurdle – Shewearsitwell 7/1
Ryanair – Min 10/1 & A Plus Tard 12/1
Mares Chase – Happy Diva 20/1
Cee Bee Scribbles 