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Grand National

Grand National – Aintree –  4m2f – 5.15pm – Sat 10th Apr

Cloth Cap is officially 14lbs well-in but if he were to run in a handicap off his new mark of 162 I’d argue he’s terribly handicapped. He got a solo on the lead at Kelso last time whilst the favourite and second home, Aso, didn’t jump or travel great. Running here off just 148 is still 12lbs higher than his Hennessy winning mark. An impressive winner he gave a flawless display of jumping from the front that day but it wasn’t a strong renewal of the Hennessy. The 2nd & 3rd from that race were competitive since but haven’t won. The 4th & 5th are very average beasts. I’d say Cloth Cap is at most 5-6lbs well-in.

These fences are a different style so there’s no guarantee his recent excellent jumping will be such an asset again. And he’s highly unlikely to get an uncontested lead like he did the last twice. Any rain wouldn’t be ideal either, he wants genuine good spring ground. More than enough negatives to move on from the 4/1 favourite.

Any Second Now has a very likeable profile. A winner of the Kim Muir (a big field handicap chase that requires plenty of stamina) and a winner of a Grade 2 2mile chase last time (recent form, high class ability). That Kim Muir win was as a 7yo novice so to be only 9lbs higher 24mts later suggests there may be mileage in that mark of 152. He hasn’t run over a staying trip or tried too hard too often in the past few seasons. Primed for a big performance on the biggest of days.

Usually being up with the pace is an advantage in the Grand National but this year with the favourite being ridden aggressively from the front it’s likely the pace will be very strong throughout and it may pay to be ridden from a little off the pace. Any Second Now will be held up in midfield and ridden to challenge late.

Secret Reprieve is another who won last time out, the Welsh National over 3m6f, which shows stamina is no issue. An 8lb rise for that win wasn’t bad so he may still be well handicapped (although that race hasn’t worked out too well since) but as a 7yo with just 9 career starts to his name I have other concerns. As well as the experience factor I’d also be concerned if the ground was riding fairly fast on the day; his best has come on soft.

Soft ground brings me nicely to Kimberlite Candy. A winner of the Warwick Classic Chase (3m5f) tells us stamina is no issue and these unique fences won’t be an issue for Richie McLernon’s mount as he has twice finished 2nd in the Becher Chase. Two concerns would be good ground (more mud the better for him) and his handicap mark of 153 – there may not be much wiggle room left in that.

Burrows Saint is like Any Second Now, he showed this might be the right race for him in the spring of 2019 and has been waiting without trying too hard ever since. He has winning form on good ground, and softer. Had the stamina to bag an Irish Grand National. Enough experience for this sort of test (that Irish win came as just a 6yo novice) and plenty of class too. However, it wasn’t the greatest Irish National so a 12lb higher mark may actually be a little harsh. But the main negative I’d have is I didn’t like his prep run. Paul Townend was quiet on him, which was fair as a prep run, but I still felt his finishing effort was quite weak.

Minella Times is another for McManus. With plenty of form around 2m5f he’ll definitely have the ability to travel with the pace but once they go beyond 3miles it’s somewhat of a step into the unknown. His form this season is terrific with a win at Listowel followed by a Paddy Power Chase (big field staying handicap form) 2nd and a Dublin Racing Festival 2nd. The form of the latter has worked out very well. The 5th & 6th won handicap chases since. The 4th went close at Cheltenham, whilst the 3rd was beaten a neck next time. Off just 146 now I’d argue this improving 8yo could have as much in hand as Cloth Cap. Henry & Rachael to follow up a dream Cheltenham with the Grand National?

Discorama is winless in 10 starts going back to Nov’18. A proven stayer who has been competitive off this sort of mark I can see the case but he has plenty to prove.

Bristol de Mai won’t have the stamina for this. I know he looks like he’d gallop forever at 3m1f in Haydock mud but the 3m2f of the Cheltenham Gold Cup has looked too far for him. Another who’ll force the pace. He was ultimately a little disappointing last time and this year’s Haydock win has not worked out as trustworthy form.

Magic of Light was second to the amazing Tiger Roll in the last (2019) Grand National. He obviously doesn’t return and she’s just 5lbs higher so a case can be made. The fences and trip are no concern (can’t say that for certain about too many). But she’s not coming into this off a great run. The trip was too short but for me she still should’ve showed more at Cheltenham. Perhaps it’s all about Aintree and she’ll bounce back to her very best.

A repeat of his Welsh National win would give Potters Corner a chance but now 11yrs old and below best last time (wasn’t right post-race) means he has it all to prove. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue and his handicap mark doesn’t look too bad (just 4lbs higher than a decent Welsh National win) so if he is at his best he can go close.

Acapella Bourgeois will be another on the pace trying to make it. He’s also an 11yo and fairly highly tried so it’d be surprising if he was handicapped to win if taking to the test. He did beat Burrows Saint last time and wasn’t far behind him when 3rd in the 2019 Irish National so yeah he might get into it but not for me.

Milan Native is another Kim Muir winner (staying big field handicap chase) which is a positive. Perhaps we can ignore the last run as he lost a shoe and may have needed it after 3mts off and a wind-op. A bit to prove but a big run wouldn’t surprise.

Farclas is another for Giggi/Gordon/Foster outfit. He’s in-form, very well handicapped off 146, will have no trouble travelling off a fast pace and handling decent ground. The unknown is the last mile of stamina.

Anibale Fly was in better form when placed in this race in 2018 & 2019. I suspect he’ll jump round again and stay the marathon trip but very unlikely to be good enough at this stage of his career.

Lord du Mesnil has a chance. Officially 5lbs well-in having won the Trial race at Haydock. 2nd in the 2020 NHC at Cheltenham is a race that Tiger Roll & Rathvinden have used to prove stamina pre GN in recent times. He has jumped around these fences before, the trip shouldn’t be a worry, the more rain and mud the better for him.  Another front runner…

Class Conti was apparently bought for Aintree so a career best for the Mullins inmate wouldn’t surprise. 2nd & 3rd in the past Thyestes and 4th in the Leinster National was a ok prep. He’ll need to find more. So far he doesn’t look good enough to win as strong a race as this.

Soft ground would give Lake View Lad a chance. He has been 3rd in an Ultima at Cheltenham off this mark and won at Aintree (normal course) earlier this season. He’s a fairly high-class staying handicapper at his best but was poor the last twice.

Ok Corral has a Doncaster win that gives him a chance but it’s 1.5yrs ago and he has only raced once 9badly) since. Plenty to prove.

Vieux Lion Rouge has done all his winning off 6-8lb lower marks. Aged 12 he’ll need, an unlikely to come, career best. Beaten 40L in the last 4 renewals.

Jett has won a few graded races on spring ground. He’s not a bad horse and 150 rating is workable having peaked at 158 last season. He’s a strong traveller which will suit but staying must be a major question-mark as was his last effort.

The Storyteller is badly handicapped after picking up a soft G1 chase in Down Royal.

Some Neck has run well in Cross Country races this season so may love this test. Handles good ground and likely to stay. Ticks a few boxes, I just wonder if he’s good enough.

Chris’s Dream is unlikely to stay and was poor last time. Same two comments apply to both Balko des Flos and Cabaret Queen. Kauto Riko has no staying form to his name making him impossible to fancy.

Mister Malarky has won decent 3m handicap chases in the past. He wasn’t awful last time and may step forward from it post wind-op. But he’s very unlikely to be good enough to win this off a career high 155.

Minellacelebration was an impressive Oct winner at Aintree and has other pieces of strong staying good ground form. A big run at a big price wouldn’t shock me.

Alpha Des Obeaux was targeting this for a while (and not trying sometimes as a result) but his recent form is still fairly poor. If there’s a 100/1 shot placed on the day it might be him.

Yala Enki wants it softer and isn’t handicapped to win. Another who’ll force a strong pace.

Takingrisks has won a Scottish National (4m, good ground) and last time out he won a really strong renewal of the SkyBet Chase proving his age is no obstacle. In form, stays and handles decent ground – that’s 3 of the main boxes ticked.

Ballyoptic has no chance. Definitely Red is the same, too old and wants it softer. Talkischeap looks to be in terrible form. Tout Est Permis is badly handicapped over fences. Shattered Love won’t stay and isn’t handicapped well enough to win. Give me a Copper and Blaklion have no chance either.

Canelo has already had 6 starts this season and looks a consistent staying chaser but is unlikely to be peaking in April or handicapped well enough to win in this quality of field.

The Long Mile needs to prove he’s good enough, will stay and is old/experienced enough. I’m happy to skip over him but I guess there’s a chance he goes well. He’s not the worst handicapped in here based on last effort behind Burrows Saint & Acapella.

Sub Lieutenant isn’t good enough and won’t stay. Hogan’s Height has won around these fences but at a lower level and shorter trip. Double Shuffle has been okay this season but he’s not up to what’s required here. Ami Desbois is similar. Ran well the last twice but doubt he’s good enough or well handicapped to feature if jumping well and staying. Fagan isn’t good enough.

Summary: there may be 40 runners but I think there’s only about a dozen who can actually go win it. And maybe another 10 who might run into a place. As much as half with no chance. Hopefully all the above makes that clear.

Of the 4 favourites I like the McManus duo more than Cloth Cap & Burrows Saint. Plenty of rain would bring Kimberlite Candy & Secret Reprieve into it but for now I don’t like them as much.

Takingrisks is the best bet at big prices. He may be 12 but is in great form. Farclas isn’t a certain runner or stayer but he’s on the shortlist for now.

Best Bets: Any Second Now 10/1, Minella Times 12/1, Farclas 33/1, Takingrisks 40/1

Can also make a case for: Lord du Mesnil 33/1 (especially on soft ground), Milan Native 25/1, Potters Corner 25/1, Some Neck 50/1, Minellacelebration 80/1.

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Tuesday Cheltenham ’21

Tuesday

Take you pick from this lot:

13.20 Appreciate It 11/8 or under 4L 10/3, Blue Lord e/w 10/1, For Pleasure ew 40/1

13.55 Shishkin wins, over 6 lengths.

14.30 Aye Right 11/2, Milan Native 9/1, Vintage Clouds 20/1

15.05 Honeysuckle 5/2, Aspire Tower 20/1 e/w

15.40 Roksana e/w 7/2, Minella Melody w/o fav 16/1. If you like the fav I like under 5L 10/3.

16.15 Elham Valley e/w 50/1

16.50 Next Destination 4/1 (best bet of the day)

Most of the rest of this was written a full week before the Festival so it may not be perfectly up to date but is still relevant…..

Supreme Nov Hurdle

The popular angle seems to be taking on Appreciate It as he wasn’t very impressive last time and looks a stayer who’ll appreciate longer trips. That latter point is true but he’s the best horse in here, 3 from 3 this season and the second-best bumper horse we saw last year. Anything better than 6/4 he’s a definitely a bet. Don’t mind the money back specials and each way extra places, back the winner. The likely strong pace with For Pleasure running is a big help to the favourite. Paul Townend went too slow on him last time so having something to take him along rather than having to make it is a boost.

Opposition is thin on the ground. Soaring Glory has at least a stone to find on his last effort. Metier hasn’t beaten much and the yard are struggling for form. Ballyadam won a poor Royal Bond and looks held by the fav even if improving for good ground. His recent stable change may not be a positive.

Blue Lord (if running here) is the best e/w alternative to the favourite. He was held up off a slow pace the last day which would never suit one who stays further. Ridden close to the pace (which will be much stronger) he can get close to Appreciate It. And give the Bob Olinger (Ballymore Wed) form a stronger look.

Other longshot each-way alternatives (especially if William Hill go with their usual 5/6 places) include Irascible, a year younger and far less experienced than Appreciate It when 2nd to him at Xmas; he will like the strong pace and stiff finish. And For Pleasure gets a mention too. A course & distance G2 winner in Nov with an official rating of 145 he’s better than the betting will suggest. More likely to get an uncontested lead here as well, he was hassled for it at Newbury last time.

Bet: Appreciate It to win 11/8+

Arkle Nov Chase

Ah what could’ve been – I’ll delete the paragrapgh on Energumene and we’ll move on.

In the without Shishkin market – Allmankind would be vulnerable to a hold up horse picking up the pieces. He also needs to jump around which doesn’t always look a given. Captain Guinness is possibly a better horse than Franco de Port, he’ll definitely have more pace than that rival on decent ground, but his prep wasn’t ideal with a silly fall.

 Ultima Hcap Chase

Aye Right is solid out here. This season he was 3rd in the Charlie Hall, 2nd in the Ladbroke (winner has done well since) and 3rd in the SkyBet (jockey dropped whip in home straight). They are very similar competitive 3m handicap chases. He’s one of the best horses in here so won’t lack for class and will be ridden close to the pace out of trouble. Gets a minor jockey upgrade with Johnson replacing Bewley as well.

Musical Slave is my second choice. He didn’t have too hard a race last time and can be better for more effort. He was solid at Newbury in November also but it’s his run from Uttoxeter last March that catches my eye. He stayed on well for second that day so should enjoy this likely strong pace and stiff finish here. Note he’s just 2lbs higher now whilst the winner is deemed 18lbs better. Musical Slave hasn’t had the chance to show it yet.

Vintage Clouds best efforts have come in 3m1f handicap chases. Twice he has won off his current mark of 143. A mid-season wind-op helps explain some recent below par efforts. Stable form is a worry at the moment but he has finished 2nd & 3rd in previous renewals so this test obviously suits. He’ll be a decent price.

Milan Native, especially if they claim off him (J Gainford (7)) can go well. An impressive winner of the Kim Muir last year he also had a wind-op recently so should be able to bounce back to his best. Goose Man ran well in a strong Leopardstown handicap last time but I’m not sure he’s good enough to win in this company.

The main dangers are the unexposed and potentially well-handicapped novices but I don’t particularly like any of them. Happygolucky is just a little short on experience – I’d rather he had another start since December. His course win was a poor novice chase. Lieutenant Rocco does look capable of better but he also prefers softer ground than he’s likely to get. One for the Team was below his best the last twice. Escaria Ten hasn’t looked a graded chaser so 147 is a tough enough mark in my opinion.

Bets: Very much depends on the odds but Aye Right 10/1, Musical Slave 20/1 & Vintage Clouds 33/1 would appeal as e/w bets at double figure odds against the single figure novices.

Champion Hurdle

A great looking race after last year’s below average renewal. A repeat of Leopardstown makes Honeysuckle the one to beat. She was terrific the last day. In great form and the likely strong pace brings her stamina into play. Only concern is quick ground so lets see if there’s plenty of rain before backing her. Epatante’s win last year was the benchmark but off an average campaign she’s not too solid looking 12mts on. Better ground this season will suit.

Goshen isn’t one I’d like. This left-handed undulating track is the opposite of his trial win (form questionable). The new course of last year’s Triumph would’ve suited better also, he’ll need to jump fast and straight on this old course. The other one I don’t like is Silver Streak, rate SS on everything apart from Kempton at Xmas and conclude he has no chance.

Abacadabras can run well on a return to better ground. Ignore his sick at Xmas effort. Lots of pace on gives him a right target also, more so than in the Supreme where he found himself in front way too early, yet he still almost beat Shishkin. Unlikely to win but I’d be amazed if too many finishes ahead of him. Sharjah will like the combination of decent ground and strong pace but I doubt he’s good enough to get involved.

And Aspire Tower also looks much improved this year. He wasn’t right in the Triumph last year when hanging and jumping poorly. Another who’ll force the pace it’d be surprising if he was good enough to hold on. Christmas at Leopardstown was his first open company G1, whilst still a 4yo, so can improve from that. Prior to that he beat Abacadabras & Jason the Militant at Down Royal; he’s a G1 horse.

Bets: Honeysuckle to win 5/2+ (unless ground looks quick), Abacadabras & Aspire Tower e/w 4 places or w/o Honeysuckle or even place only – the latter looking the better value currently.

Mares Hurdle

I kind of want to be against Concertista, especially if she goes odds-on, but it is difficult with very little opposition. The mares novice hurdle she won last year was bang average (3out to the line in the same time as the Pertemps). This year she was impressive first time but then at Leopardstown Minella Melody went off way too hard in front and the race fell into her lap. The issue is there is really only one credible opponent.

Roksana’s 3 runs this season have been marginally better than what Concertista has done but they’ve all come over 3miles which is definitely her best trip. Her ‘held up in last’ tactic will be very difficult to execute coming back in trip and I worry if there is enough pace in it for her.

If Roksana does divert to the Stayers the fav is a good thing.

Dame de Compagnie hasn’t had the perfect prep for this running over fences. She looks very short at 6/1 now. Black Tears is solid if not quite top class. Indefatigable has been poor of late. Minella Melody’s best form could see her grab a place at a big price.

Bet: Roksana e/w 7/2, small play Minella Melody e/w or w/o fav.

Boodles Juvenile Hurdle

Couldn’t be confident here. Too many who haven’t shown everything yet. A guessing game that I’m unlikely to solve. Saint Sam and Houx Gris look likely to be graded class in time but neither have been missed by the market. Cabot Cliffs is looking unpopular, if he keeps drifting he’ll come on the radar.

I’ll chance a few e/w at fancy prices, maybe one of: Hell Red, Elham Valley, Tinnahalla, Her Indoors or Zoffanien.

National Hunt Chase

Galvin is a good horse and he has plenty of experience for a novice chaser and this has been the target all year, but he’s no superstar. His course win is Oct was a poor race. Recent stable change might be a minor negative.

Royal Pagaille doesn’t run here. I don’t fancy him Friday.

There’s very little depth to this race assuming we go without Dickie Diver, Next Destination (I’d give him a right shout here and would take him e/w if 3rd in the betting), Latest Exhibition, Escaria Ten (goes Ultima?) and Secret Reprieve (big chance in Grand National).  There’s a few bits of form that suggest Lord Royal can step into graded company but he has been a disappointing sort and is not for me. The fav has shown so much more to date.

Bet: Royal Pagaille 6/4 or bigger assuming Next Destination doesn’t run here

Tues summary: Appreciate It (best bet), Honeysuckle, Royal Pagaille are the three favs I want on-side, price pending obviously and I’m happy to just watch Shishkin. Two e/w stabs at the Ultima and skip the Boodles. Quiet enough start, there are just so many unappealing betting races this year.

Skip to:

Wed: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/wednesday-cheltenham-21/

Thurs: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/

Fri: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/friday-cheltenham-21/

Friday Cheltenham ’21

Friday

Summary for the lazy:

Zanahiyr will be popular with a few Irish fav multiples rolling onto him. I’d prefer chancing Quilixios e/w 9/2 or greater. Although drying ground would be a worry.

Ganapathi is the right fav, wouldn’t put you off. Fifty Ball 14, Cayd Boy 20, Saint D’Oroux 22 complete the shortlist.

No idea on the Albert Bartlett. Gold Cup is a 4 horse race – I’ll chance Minella Indo ahead of Champ.

It Came to Pass will love the drying ground. Elimay wins. Gabynako gone very short now (Naas form worked out very well) so I’ll suggest Mill Green e/w & Dolciani Dici for those who need a 100/1 shot to get out for the week.

The rest of this was written 4/5 days ago but is all still relevant….

Triumph Hurdle

Across the four days the Irish challenge is so strong this looks to be one of the few Irish v UK battles. Tritonic & Adagio versus Zanahyir & Quixilos.

Tritonic didn’t beat much last time and if he had done that in December and been off since he’d be twice the price here. Recency bias they call it. He’s beaten the same average horse both times and his jumping wasn’t perfect last time. Terrible price at 5/2. Adagio might actually have better form and he’ll stay well. But overall I prefer the Irish form.

I’m not convinced by Zanahiyr. Especially if he is sub 2/1 on the day. Here’s why – at Fairyhouse he had the benefit of a run and 4lbs but most importantly was Saint Sam looked to blow up and wasn’t hard ridden when beaten. Then at Xmas the race was a crawl-sprint and Jack gave him a smart ride. He ultimately beat two Irish debutants as Saint Sam got a poor ride. Good on the clock at Fairyhouse and winning two different types of races but there’s plenty of holes to be picked in the form.

Arguably the form of Quilixios beating Saint Sam (was keen but his best effort) and Busselton (should’ve improved from his debut) is the strongest piece of 4yo form available. The old stable rated Zanahiyr higher and they’d know more than me and moving to a new stable isn’t a positive but I still might chance Quilixios around 6/1. A strong galloping staying type the new course will suit him, more rain/watering the better, and I expect him to be on the pace out of trouble.

Bets: Quilixios 6/1

County Hurdle

How many Irish horses can I like here. Four strong shortlist to begin with: Cayd Boy, Éclair de Beafeu, Saint D’oroux, Ganapathi. Fifty Ball also makes the shortlist but he may miss the cut and Champagne Gold would enter calculations, but he might go Martin Pipe I think. Similarly if either The Shunter or Blue Lord turn up here they’d be respected.

Cayd Boy looks to have been put away for this after a decent effort at Fairyhouse. Behind him that day was the unlucky Drop the Anchor who went on to win the fiercely competitive Betfair Hurdle. He’s a lightly raced 6yo that we’ve not seen the best of yet. He won a big field handicap hurdle first time out at Down Royal so coming in fresh is no bad thing and this test should be fine for him.

Éclair de Beafeu’s recent handicap hurdle form isn’t good enough but like many of Gordon’s he’ll run better on the big day. Jack didn’t give him a great ride when he fell at the last in this race in 2019 (off 136). Then last year he finished 2nd in the Grand Annual (off 149) so his Festival record is decent and a mark of 139 doesn’t look too bad.

Saint D’oroux was 3rd in the Fred Winter (Festival form) and 3rd in the Betfair at Leopardstown (recent form) last time. A solid looking 5yo.

Ganapathi fits the bill as a WP Mullins novice. He was unlucky when 2nd in Punchestown as they went too hard early and got picked up by a closer (he also hit the last). Then he looked a non-stayer in G1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. A result of those two efforts is the handicapper had to let him away light. He’s better than 140 and a strongly run 2m should suit.

Bets: Ganapathi 10/1, Cayd Boy 20/1

Albert Bartlett

This was 3 paragraphs about how good a bet Ashdale Bob was. Now he’s not running. Great…

No idea now. It’s hard to make a case for one over another, there’s no standout candidate.

Bet: tbd

Gold Cup

Al Boum Photo bids for history but he didn’t look terrific at Tramore and this is definitely the strongest Gold Cup of the 3 he has competed in. They went very slow last year and he benefited from a good ride. The previous year was a solid test so he’ll be fine with the likely strong pace set by Native River & Frodon. I’d guess the form of either race isn’t as strong as this one if M Indo, Champ & A Plus Tard all run to their best.

A Plus Tard won a good race at Christmas but he’d have been 3rd if Kemboy & Melon were ridden better. I just don’t think he’s good enough on everything we’ve seen – beaten in novice G1, 3rd in Ryanair.

Champ is good enough to win a Gold Cup but I have two (very differing) concerns. 1) He might be too free and fresh early wasting energy – strong pace helps negate this. 2) He might struggle to hold his place and go with faster horses when/if there is a pace injection like in last year’s RSA – new course will suit him better perhaps. Having two concerns and not being a great fan of the jockey doesn’t help.

Santini looks an awful yak this season and for all Native River might run well the likely drying ground will mean a few go faster than him in the last mile. Frodon isn’t good enough and won a weak King George with a shrewd ride.

Kemboy would have a chance on his best pieces of form but they all came whilst dominating off the front. Going quicker than Frodon & Native River is possible (Danny will try it I bet) but it may be too hard. And his Cheltenham record raises questions.

Minella Indo is my pick. I think if Rachael had last year’s RSA back again she’d win it more times than not. A classy lightly raced horse he had the perfect profile (strong stayer, G1 hurdler) until making an uncharacteristic error at Christmas. That meant he needed another outing which wasn’t in Henry’s original plan so the DRF effort wasn’t him at 100% and the plan was just a clear round. I wasn’t great but it was ok. A return to his best at Cheltenham and not many will finish ahead of him.

Bet: Minella Indo 12/1

Hunters Chase

One of the most impressive winners of last year’s Festival was It Came to Pass. He had 10L to spare over Billaway. He preceded that effort with a pulled-up in a Kilfeacle point to point. So, should we be concerned with his recent poor Thurles effort – nope. He was very much minded the last day too. The ground will be even better this year than it was 12mts ago.

Billaway has had a good season but his jumping isn’t always perfect. Bob and Co also looks a serious threat (good on the clock last time apparently) but preference is for the one who has been there and done it.

Bet: It Came to Pass 9/1

Mares Chase

A new introduction and not a very wise one as it looks a particularly weak affair with a Mullins/McManus favourite likely to take all the beating. Elimay is small but she is talented. She beat Shattered Love with ease at Naas and whilst SL will appreciate this longer trip I think there’s a gulf in class between them.

Annie Mc is well below the form required. Magic of Light is good but wants much further to be at her best and Happy Diva excels over course & distance but was poor last time.

7/4 currently and it’ll only get shorter as the race looks so weak. Only the fences can stop Elimay. Update – Colreevy looks set to run. She’s a credible opponent, especially if more rain comes. She’ll carry a penalty for her G1 win though and does lack the experience of her stablemate.

Bet: Elimay 7/4 or bigger

Martin Pipe Hcap Hurdle

The finale. Be well ahead by now, it’s a tricky getting out stakes if you’re not. 3 of the first 4 home last year were 25/1 or more.

Mill Green was an eyecatcher in the Martin Pipe last year. He badly missed the (standing) start and was given far too much to do then with the whole field still in front of him 3out but flew home for 6th. Back off the same mark as he had a flat and chase start since – the latter was a fine effort.

For team Elliott/Foster if Column of Fire found some form he’ll go close and Saint D’oroux is a solid type whilst Floueur money would be noteworthy. My Sister Sarah a WPM longshot I could make a case for.

Irish novices look to dominate the market, as they often do here, and it’s easy to make a case for all of: Gentleman de Mee, Eskylane (will he get in?), Wide Receiver, Champagne Gold and Ganapathi (County more likely). But my pick is Gabynako.

He has a bit more experience that all of those, including in a big field handicap hurdle last time where he wasn’t off a yard. Stepping back in trip he was dropped in and never had much chance of reaching the business end. Expect a more prominent and aggressive ride next week. Conor McNamara is apparently booked and he’ll be one of the better jockeys in the race. This has been the plan from a shrewd yard. Off 141 his form with Fakiera, Ashdale Bob and Bob Olinger suggests he’s not far off graded class. If the three of them are well beaten earlier in the week there may be a change of plan here!

Friday summary: The two handicap hurdles are tricky and the Albert Bartlett is wide open so ‘careful now’. Elimay and It Came to Pass my main plays and Minella Indo for Gold. 7 Irish winners on Friday.

Tues: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/tuesday-cheltenham-21/

Wed: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/wednesday-cheltenham-21/

Thurs: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/

Thursday Cheltenham ’21

Thursday

Update = I’m coming around to Paisley Park @ 2/1. I think the Long Walk is the best piece of form and Thyme Hill & Roksana aren’t here. The two runs this year (gave 3lbs to TH when beaten the first day out) prove last March was a blip he is over. Course suits, strong pace is ideal. He’s the most likely winner. I’m on Fury Road & don’t like most of the others.

Envoi wins, 6L. I’ve backed Chatham Street Lad e/w in the without market but drying ground may not be ideal. Blackbow & Darver Star may now be the value in that market.

The Bosses Oscar will take beating in the Pertemps, he’s solid e/w 6 places. Spiritofthegames might run into a place as well from off the pace but I’m happy to chance two massive outsiders. Getaround 50/1 (more on him further on below) and Perfect Man 100/1 – a decent 5lb claimer up, a change of headgear (will race prominent) and his last effort wasn’t too bad (it wasn’t the strongest finishing effort by a jockey that I’ve seen). Keeper Hill 33/1 is another with new headgear, will like the decent ground and has dropped to an eyecatching mark.

The Ryanair is tricky: Min win, Melon e/w, or just No bet, would be my order of preference here.

The Shunter did rock up in the Plate. He has to recover from Kelso, stay this trip and I’m not sure sticking up a 7lb claimer was necessary. Couldn’t back him at sub 4/1.

Still like Caribean Boy, but unfortuantely I also like Sully Doc, Assemble, Huntsman Son & Paddys Poem. The latter is well overpriced at 25/1.

Despite money for Glens of Antrim & Tellmesomethinggirl and Townend riding Gauloise, I still like Royal Kahala, Hook Up & Roseys Hollow (in that order). Tricky race.

Musical Slave is the pick in the Kim Muir to finish Thursday.

The rest was written a few days ago:

Marsh Chase

Envoi Allen is a good thing (despite the recent change of yard). Winner here the last two years and a fairly flawless 3 from 3 over fences so far. Hard to find a negative. And it is not even about him being brilliant. There is simply no decent opposition. How Ballyadam runs might impact this fella’s price.

Shan Blue looks best of the rest but he was beaten in Sandown last time, having a hard race in the process. He gave a jumping exhibition when winning at Kempton but with just two fences in a long home straight here it won’t play to his strengths and he doesn’t have the engine to match the fav. He’ll also be vulnerable to a closer if Harry goes too hard to try stretch Envoi.

Chantry House has only run in small fields and hasn’t beaten much, I doubt he’s good enough to get involved. That exact comment probably covers Fusil Raffles as well.

I like Chatham Street Lad in the without market. An impressive course & distance winner in December he can travel well off the pace and challenge in the straight. His last effort wasn’t too bad as back in trip they went slow and it didn’t suit. Now back at his best trip and freshened up a little he can go from off the pace.

Bets: Envoi Allen 4/5, Chatham Street Lad w/o 7/1

Pertemps Hcap Hurdle

The Bosses Oscar has been targeting this race all the year but the UK handicapper has had his say. 13lbs higher than when 5th in the Martin Pipe. He’ll probably go close (the one of the 3 favs I like the most) but he hardly has too much in hand and alternatives can be found. Claiming off him would help.

Getaround is only a 6yo with 6 hurdle starts to his name. He won his first two before an ok G2 effort. Then in handicap company, off 136 he finished 4th at Lingfield. The winner won again and is now 9lbs higher, so did the 2nd now 6lbs higher, 3rd has won twice and is 15lbs higher today. Getaround is 1lb lower now. After that effort, back in novice company he gave weight and a beating to the 127 rated Ask a Honey Bee and Small Present who’s now rated 129 after winning twice. Beaten fav on his last start but with an excuse. There are not many as unexposed as this lad in what is a weak Pertemps final. There’s more than one line of form that suggests Getaround is well handicapped off 135.

Spiritofthegames races off 141 which compared to his chase mark of 145 gives him a squeak. His last three Festival appearances resulted in finishes of 536 in decent handicaps. The 6th was last year’s Plate off 149. He doesn’t win very often but is consistent with another 4 placed efforts at the track. In good form with a recent 1L defeat at Chepstow, decent festival record, likes Cheltenham, not terribly handicapped, if Harry rides he gets a jockey upgrade from Chepstow. There is plenty to like at 20/1 for all that he’ll again probably find one too good on the day.

I don’t think Imperial Alcazar won a particularly good race at Warwick last time and even through his decent novice form, a mark of 147 isn’t too lenient. I’d have him in the overrated pile.

Bets: Getaround 33/1, Spiritofthegames 20/1 – place only for the latter maybe

Ryanair Chase

I’m a Min fan, look at the number of G1 wins – he’s an elite 2m4f horse. But that last effort was so disappointing.

Lots of pace on here as he’ll be joined on the front by Allaho and Melon, which may not suit any of the three. But Min is quicker than them and that may put their jumping under pressure. I don’t think Melon’s overall form is strong enough, 3/21 over jumps even if his Festival form is a rock solid 2222. Place only bet type.

Allaho is similar to Melon, only winning 1 race each of the past three seasons. At Thurles Elimay was coming back from a break and ridden accordingly, that’s not strong enough form. He still needs to prove it for me. Who Paul Townend picks is a big factor, I’d want him on Min.

Imperial Aura hasn’t had a great prep not completing since November and that Ascot race wasn’t deep. Fakir D’oudairies bounced back to form last time but was helped by Notebook going too hard. His Arkle 2nd (and form behind Notebook & when Samcro looked to have his measure) and Supreme Hurdle effort would all suggest he’s probably not good enough to win an open G1 with plenty of depth to it.

Samcro wouldn’t be out of this if bouncing back to his best but that’s a fairly big if; he’s had his troubles.

Last year’s Ryanair was a strong race and if Min is as good again he’s the best of these. But Saint Calvados also enters calculations. That was a massive run last year (possibly unlucky) and whilst he has been below par this year (keen at Kempton and unseat at Sandown are forgivable) the yard are now in form after a bad start to the season. It’s a tricky race so two small plays.

Bets: Min 6/1, saver on Saint Calvados if greater than 10/1

Stayers Hurdle

Paisley Park and Thyme Hill (ugh, update) have met twice this year and it’s very hard to confidently split them. Their clash at Ascot is very strong form, stronger than any of the Irish pieces of form. Paisley will want as strong a test of stamina as possible so Sams Spinner, Lisnagar Oscar and Flooring Porter running will certainly help. But after last year’s mishap I’m not mad about taking short odds Paisley Park.

I can’t have Flooring Porter, he was given a solo around Leopardstown last time. And Lisnagar won a poor renewal last year and this looks deeper.

Sire du Berlais will love that strong pace and test of stamina also. A back-to-back course and distance Festival winner he’ll prove best of the Irish but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to move into G1 class if the UK runners run up to their best. Whether over fences or hurdles The Storyteller is often ridden to pick up the pieces and I think he’s a little overrated as a result.

If The Cap Fits isn’t good enough to get involved. It looks like Fury Road is going to run after a change of mind. A repeat of his Albert Bartlett effort alongside Thyme Hill (& Monkfish) would take beating. His defeat the last day was because Jack went too slow and got out sprinted. His defeat at Xmas came when the yard were struggling and it was a very slowly run affair. Trust his novice form.

Bets: Sire du Berlais is solid e/w (4 places) but 9/2 now looks too short. Fury Road 12/1 appeals as much better value.

The Plate

Farclas has an obvious chance but he’s no magical Irish plot. He was trying the last twice in decent handicap chases and whilst close he was beaten fairly. Solid choice but now 8/1 the value may be gone. It wouldn’t surprise if he’s not that popular and drifts on the day, he’d be an e/w at 12/1+. Often the ante-post obvious/popular pick drifts as everyone tries to find the alternatives.

Assemble is an Irish novice (good starting point) who’d be interesting if we could trust his jumping. A win only sort of horse.

I’ve a feeling The Shunter will run here but at the time of writing he still holds five entries. Other recent winners Umbrigado & Paddys Poem would have a chance but I’m not sure if they’ll turn up.

Midnight Shadow would be of interest with the yard rounding into form after a quiet winter. His course form is strong. Oldgrangewood is solid for the e/w punters at around 20/1. He was 4th last year and returns 1lb lower. He was held up last year and given plenty to do in a race that may have suited front runners.

Also of note from last year is Mister Whitaker. He belted the first fence but recovered to finish 3rd. He returns 3lbs lower which is generous as he has only ran twice since and wasn’t awful either time. His last effort was not the most trying aggressive performance I’ve seen so more can be expected at Cheltenham.

Huntsman Son was an impressive winner after a break first time out this season before bouncing on soft ground next time. Kept fresh for this he’d have a chance with decent ground his preference. A lightly raced 11yo so don’t be put off by the age – he’ll be a big price.

The final one to consider is Caribbean Boy. He only debuted in the UK 14mts ago but wasn’t long about opening his account off a mark of 138. When reappearing he had too much for Fiddlerontheroof (a disappointing but consistent high 140s sort). His Ascot effort was average (turned out too quickly is Nicky’s excuse) but the winner has since made it look better and last time at Sandown he was flat out over 2miles. Still a fair effort but the step up to 2m5f will allow him get involved at the business end. A 7yo with just 5 chase starts in the UK he fits the profile for this race – a classy sort we’ve not seen the best of him.

Bets: it’s difficult at this stage as I’d respect Umbrigado and The Shunter but Caribbean Boy 12/1, Mister Whitaker 16/1 would be the top two.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Royal Kahala wasn’t at her best last time at Fairyhouse yet was still just beaten 2L by Roseys Hollow. She gets a 9lb swing at Cheltenham so overturning the form shouldn’t be difficult. Previous to that she beat (whilst conceding 2lbs) Hook Up 5L at Fairyhouse. Now I do believe Hook Up went too early and may have been out-stayed over 2m2f but this 2m1f on the new course at Cheltenham suits those with some stamina. 

I think Royal Kahala is the best mare in the race and will be suited by the test. Around 5/1 she is a right bet – one of my best of the week.

Roseys Hollow is a progressive mare and she’s the most likely to drift coming from a small yard if the Mullins or deBromhead horses are very popular. Anything around 7 or 8/1 on the day would be solid e/w bet especially if we get 4 places. Be interesting to see if Mark Walsh picks Glens of Antrim ahead of her.

Kim Muir

Hold the Note ran well at last year’s Festival and on his last start. Two key pieces on the form study but he’s not a consistent sort or regular winner so 10/1 looks fairly skimpy.

Time to Get Up is appealing but around 4/1 looks very short. Just the six racecourse starts for him an 8lb rise for his last easy win is unlikely to halt his progress.

Shantou Flyer has a very good course record but this is stronger than any of the races he featured in for the past 3yrs. He’s not well handicapped.

An early shortlist would look like: Time to Get Up, Plan of Attack (4th last year, 1lb lower, this may have been a season long plan), Musical Slave (quiet season, well handicapped on Uttox 2nd), Destinee Royale (recent impressive winner, looks to stay well and lightly enough raced so could be open to more improvement), Mount Ida (back Gordon novices in the handicaps strategy).

Thursday summary: Envoi Allen wins. A few stabs at the Pertemps, Plate & Kim Muir. That’s already a lot of bets. I really like Royal Kahala and will have plays on Min & Fury Road. A lot of bets – turnover Thursday.

Skip to Friday: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/friday-cheltenham-21/

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Wednesday Cheltenham ’21

Jump back to Tuesday: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/tuesday-cheltenham-21/

Wednesday

Again a lot of this was written a full week before the Festival so it may not be perfectly up to date…

Ballymore Nov Hurdle

Three exciting novices and 20/1 bar, it’s not an each way race.

Team Mullins reached for the hood for free going Gaillard du Mesnil, it’d be a worry if PT doesn’t get him settled and covered up early. Then if coming from the pack he might need luck in running and I’m not sure he has the acceleration of a top class one. It took him a while to get to Stattler last time and the opposition here is far stronger. He’s a very good horse though, ran a great time at Xmas. Anything that beats him will be genuine G1 quality.

Bob Olinger, like Appreciate It on Tues, has only been beaten by Ferny Hollow. He is quick and uncomplicated. That’ll be a big thing against these two rivals. His Naas win is a top piece of form. 3 starts, one in good company but without a hard race and kept well fresh – he has had a perfect prep. How Blue Lord runs on Tues may give a minor indicator of the strength of his Naas win.

Bravemansgame has looked decent but he has not beaten much to date and may be vulnerable to a speedier horse on the new course. He looked to my uneducated eyes to be a strong galloping stayer last time.

Bet: Bob Olinger 5/2 – if he goes any shorter (currently 2/1) I’d skip over him. If Gaillard drifts to 3/1+ I’d happily back him instead.

Brown Advisory Novice Chase (RSA)

Monkfish runs near his best and jumps around safely and he’s far too good for this lot. It’s that simple. He looked terrific at Christmas and is a G1 Festival horse already. 8/11 is too short for me though. If all the Mullins favs get beat on Tuesday perhaps we’ll see closer to evens Wednesday morning then he’s in play but that’s unlikely.

After decs there’ll only be 6 runners so if you fancy one e/w back it before 10am Monday.

The battle for places is decent as I don’t think there isn’t much between The Big Breakaway, Sporting John, Dickie Diver and Eklat De Rire. Even Fiddlerontheroof isn’t useless. They’ve won plenty of races, including G1s, so despite there being an odds-on fav this is a decent renewal. No bet.

Coral Cup

Koshari was eye-catching at Leopardstown but he still got behind in a 3mile event. Now he did make a mistake early and perhaps PT just minded him from there on but I’ve a little doubt that he might not quite have the pace for this shorter test on better ground. His best form is on softer stuff.

This has been the plan for Grand Roi and I expect we’ll see far more than we have to date. But he hasn’t shown it yet and the trip is not certain to suit so I can skip over the 7/1 fav.

Gary Moore has been happy to tell us that Botox Has is being lined up for this all season. Take note of that sort of comment. His course form reads 211, the 2 coming behind Allmankind. The latter 1 being a 4L beating, giving 4lbs, to The Pink’n who ran very well next time out. Being dropped 4lbs for his last two efforts is generous and 142 probably underestimates him.

Thomas Darby isn’t mad about winning and isn’t very well handicapped but he’s a strong travelling classy sort who could sneak into the business end of this if played very late. 2nd in a Supreme on his only other Festival appearance.

Ganapathi is my main selection for the County Hurdle so an appearance here would be interesting. I expect You Raised Me Up to go for the County also. The Shunter would be respected as well here (don’t think he’ll run). Dysart Diamond shouldn’t be ignored as a Mullins second-string; she was 7/2f for a competitive handicap last time and was effectively brought down.

Guard Your Dreams would also appeal if he chooses this entry. A lightly raced 5yo novice he should be improving and coming from a competitive handicap is good match practice for this. The step up in trip really should suit (full-brother best at this trip on decent ground). He just couldn’t keep up with the pace at Newbury last time but it was a fine effort. How Soaring Glory & For Pleasure go on Tues might tell us more about that form line. Won 3 from 4 before that.

Shortlist at current prices: Botox Has 14/1, Thomas Darby 25/1, Giard Your Dreams 16/1, Dysart Diamond 25/1

QM Champion Chase

Chacun Pour Soi is a good thing. Sure, he is fragile, and this is his first trip to Cheltenham but he has dispatched the likes of Notebook, Put the Kettle On, Defi du Seuil, etc. with such ease in the past. This guy is the best horse going to Cheltenham, he’s 7+lbs better than all of these. A drift to evens or bigger on the day and he’s a right bet.

I’m against Altior. He’s now 11yo, had 3 runs in the past 2yrs, beaten in 2 of them and prior to that his 2019 win 2L better than Politologue wouldn’t be good enough this year. He doesn’t have the gears anymore, especially on decent ground.

Nube Negra is vastly overrated after winning a bad Kempton race (in a poor time). Politologue seems to go well when very fresh so having a poor outing in Jan is not ideal. First Flow beat him that day but he got a far better ride than his rivals, he’ll be vulnerable to closers at Cheltenham. He possibly is better going right-handed also. The Cheltenham hill tends to blunt Sceau Royal’s speed for all he’ll love the likely good ground and was decent at Newbury last time. Rouge Vif won a poor handicap in Oct, his graded form isn’t good enough.

Notebook is the one I like e/w and/or without the fav. He was ridden far too aggressively at DRF and will revert to more patient but prominent tactics here. Two flops at the Festival, an edgy sort, may be helped by having no fans. He also arguably didn’t flop over hurdles as he just wasn’t very good then and last year the combination of a hard race in Feb and then the false start are viable excuses. He holds PTKO from Xmas and the best of his novice form beating Fakir is marginally better than hers also. The mare will have plenty of competition for the lead and she’s possibly better on deeper ground (making it a 2m test of stamina rather than speed).

PTKO, First Flow, Politologue will take each other on and make this a real test of speed from the start. It’ll allow CPS sit in and challenge fairly late as he did in Leopardstown last time. The pace may also put pressure on Altior’s jumping and cruising speed to keep up. And it should give Sceau Royale and Notebook a nice tow into the race.

Bets: Chacun Pour Soi 10/11, Notebook w/o (place only) 16/1, Irish 1-2-3 is possible.

Cross Country

Easysland was a dominant winner 12mts ago but two things are different now. The ground will be much better (that’s not in his favour) and his season and build up to this have been somewhat hampered by injury/illness. So whilst he’s the most likely winner and probably the best horse in here I can’t be confident backing him.

Last year it was a two horse race so if Easysland doesn’t run to his best perhaps Tiger Roll is the obvious alternative. He’ll appreciate the drying spring ground and was himself a very easy winner of this in ’18 and ’19. Whilst I thought he wasn’t awful last time he needs to take a massive step forward. As an aside – his National mark of 166 was fair.

I like Potters Corner for the Grand National so would be eager to see a good showing here. If he doesn’t run well Some Neck is the most likely to fill the places – a repeat of his Dec win here would be enough but if any of the top 3 in the market run to their best Some Neck will be 25L behind.

No bet, or a small Tiger Roll

Grand Annual

Embittered is one of my best early handicap fancies. Now 6/1 it’s short enough but I think he’s the most likely winner and has course experience, class, well handicapped, can race prominent. Loads of positives. A novice he has had 4 starts over fences, behind two smart rivals and then 4th in two G1 novice chases. He’s been keeping good company and looking smart without giving too much away to the handicapper. He runs off 146, which for a 149 hurdler looks lenient. The 149 came after finishing 3rd in last year’s County Hurdle (Festival form), a race where the 1st & 2nd are now 18 & 14lbs higher. He was up with the pace in that race which wasn’t actually the best place to be, so the effort was tremendous. Being up with the pace will suit here on the old course.

I don’t fancy Sky Pirate, he has done his winning this season and 7lbs for the Warwick win looks harsh. Similar comments about Ibleo, I’d rather an unexposed sort laid out for the race than one who has won two handicaps already this season. Zanza coming in off the back of a fall, at Cheltenham, and few months off is hardly ideal. Entoucas doesn’t win very often and he was trying when beaten in his last three Irish handicaps. Us and Them might win even less than his stablemate, I don’t like him at all. Dus Des G prefers it softer and is still overrated after winning a Go-awful Arkle.

J Gainford claiming 7 off Chosen Mate would give him a chance. 156 seems harsh enough considering he was garbage all season but it’s still only 9lbs higher than last year and that was an impressive win. If they don’t claim I think he wouldn’t be handicapped to win. And it’s not a race I’d be mad to back an inexperienced jockey in either.

On The Slopes missed the cut for this race last year and if he had got in he’d have went close. He won at Kempton the day after instead. His form last spring was terrific. This season not so much but there appear to be excuses (wind-op) and the handicapper has given him a chance down 3lbs to 140. Having a spin on the flat as a warmup may just help keep him off the radar.

Not That Fuisse is in good form (in bumpers on the all-weather) after a wind-op. Skelton is a fella to respect in Festival handicaps. This guy will like good ground. He didn’t stay here over 2m4f in Oct. There’s plenty to like but I’m not certain he’s much better than his mark of 137.

Bun Doran if rediscovering some form could outrun big odds. 2nd off 149 in the 2019 renewal he was rated as high as 160 when competing in the Champion Chase last year but is now down to 150.

Bets: Embittered 6/1 & consider a saver on: Chosen Mate, On The Slopes, Bun Doran

Champion Bumper

Sir Gerhard has looked good, he was very impressive on the clock at Down Royal. Recent stable change may not be ideal. Kilcruit has looked better even if his last win was in a race that fell apart a little bit. Interesting that WP Mullins thought Ramillies was better than him prior to Leopardstown and again recently suggested he’ll get closer at Cheltenham.

Three Stripe Life has looked above average but the fancy prices are gone after a few mentioned him in previews. The right three horses head the market. I think Paul Townend might pick Sir Gerhard and he’ll go off favourite. No bet.

Wednesday summary: The price is just about gone on Bob Olinger, I’m happy to watch Monkfish, The Cross Country and the Bumper so that just leaves Chacun Pour Soi as my best favourite. And Notebook in the w/o market gives me a double interest. Embittered will be a big run too and I’ll have two stabs at the Coral Cup incl Botox Has. 3 betting races – quietest day betting.

Skip to Thursday: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/

Fri: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/friday-cheltenham-21/

Sat 5th Dec

1.30 Aintree – Becher Chase – this is always an extreme stamina test. A combination of the soft ground, extended trip and usual strong pace over the National fences.

I’d worry about the trip for Aso, Jett & Coo Star Sivola. On recent form we can rule out Joe Farrell and with no run in near 2yrs Calett Mad goes too.

Yala Enki will like the test but isn’t handicapped to win. I’m tempted to say the same of Ramses De Teillee – their last clash is a race that looks to have had only two run their race. Minellacelebration got 12lbs for a Veterans Chase win, happy to avoid him.

Kimberlite Candy I’d guess might have an eye on the National and just be out for the spin on seasonal reappearance. The market hasn’t missed Walk in the Mill but at 8lbs higher than last year’s winning mark (12lbs higher than 2018s) he’s not exactly chucked in here. Calipso Collognes racing from 3lbs wrong doesn’t look good enough in this company.

That only leaves 4.

My initial thought was age may have caught up with course specialist Vieux Lion Rouge but he lost a shoe in last year’s renewal so maybe that is a useable excuse. Pipe has his yard going well so far this winter and off a lower mark than when he won and was 2nd in this he’s certainly not badly handicapped. He’ll handle the unique test and be trained to the minute for it. An each-way pick at 16/1.

Le Breuil is well handicapped having been stink all last season. Blame the yard’s form but then you got to trust it now and I’m not so sure. Especially as near favourite.

Give Me A Copper goes well fresh so no issue with fitness first time up, this will have been the target. How well handicapped he is off 146 and how his fragile wind will hold up if it gets very testing, I’m not so sure. Win only saver around 12/1 perhaps.

Smooth Stepper is getting on a bit now but what we know after all the years is once he goes beyond 3miles on soft or heavy ground he has a chance. His seasonal reappearance was a fine effort over 3m on good ground. Prior to that he won the Grand National Trial over 3m4f on heavy (Yala Enki 3rd) with the 2nd going well at Cheltenham next time. There may not be much room in his mark but having won off 136 & 138, today’s 142 is hardly impossible. 20/1 is an each-way bet.

Any bookie going each-way 5 places in a 15 runner race – that is a generous offer.

12.20 Aintree – Bigmartre has slipped from 149 13mts ago to 137 now. And has a 10lb claimer on board for good measure. Assuming he needed his reappearance and we’ve not yet seen the benefit of the wind-op last spring there’s enough in there for me to have a swing at a big price. Admittedly his best form is on good ground in the spring and this is the polar opposite. 18/1 first show.

2.40 Aintree – I like Santini here. In his favour are the trip, ground and likely strong pace. I’m glad to see the cheekpieces on again. There’s an argument to waiting and backing him in running as he’s not a great traveller but I fancy he’ll make bits of these. So lightly raced there’s improvement in him and Nicky surely has him ready by now. Blinkers and mud will help but Native River off 300 days and yard in questionable form. Frodon’s best successes have come dictating from the front, often against inferior opposition, he gets neither here.

3.15 Aintree – Might Bite ran quite well at Ascot (form held up since) until tiring in the straight. Stepping back in trip will be a major help to him. This is a front runners race and staying well, over 2m5f, is imperative. He’s obviously not a reliable sort so win only. 16/1

Frederici has some form over these fences having been 4th & 5th in the Becher Chase. If this turns into a real messy slog (possible as the last race of the day) he might last home best of all. Showed himself to be in fine form winning in October, despite turning 12 next month. 33/1

Last year’s fifth Didero Vallis might run well again at 12/1 but the shortlist could be long enough here.

Over at Sandown it’ll be a watching brief for the G1 Novice Chase and whilst I want to oppose Altior I doubt I’ll find an angle/bet. The favourites in the last two, Cloudy Glen & Mister Coffey both deserve their short price and are hard to oppose for all that Crosspark is in good form and will aprreicte this trip more. Both Nickolson & Benson could also be well handicapped, a pass from me.

At Chepstow I backed Desie Aba for the Welsh National so a solid 2nd or 3rd in the Trial will be ideal.

Navan – no prices yet so bit of a guessing game.

11.30 – Ceasar Rock back in trip in the first might be worth a small bet at a huge price. He ran fairly well first time out until not quite getting home.

1.08 Tout Est Permis is rock solid in these handicap hurdles he’s just a bit short of pace and always places. Shattered Love looks thrown in but she’s built to be a far better chaser than hurdler and this trip may not be her optimum. The Bosses Oscar likely to take some beating. He was unlucky at Cheltenham and is unexposed in handicaps. Big field and plenty in with chances for a decent pot.

1.43 I want to oppose The Big Getaway. Not convinced he is straightforward and in time he’ll want further and softer. Sempo achieved as much as him over fences but Joseph’s jumpers haven’t been going well so preference may be for the experienced Opposites Attract who was beaten in two equally hot beginners chases.

2.18 Embittered may have achieved as much as the often overrated and underpriced Andy Dufresne over hurdles. If Joesph’s fella can take a step forward from his reappearance he’ll go close here.

Newbury 28th Nov – Hennessy

You call it the Ladbrokes Trophy if you want and I’ll get the filthy after-time in early, I tipped De Rasher Counter at 33/1 ante-post on 1st Nov last year.

One by One:

Topofthegame has 6-8lbs in hand based on Delta Work & Santini. Both only if he runs to his very very best. It took those two a few runs to get up to the new higher ratings. So firstly he’ll need to make it back to the top level from a serious injury . Going straight there it’ll be just his 5th chase start. After 19 months off. He may be a 170 chaser by next March but for me he’s easily opposed here at single figures.

Copperhead that Ascot form may not be too reliable. And he got a fair rise for it. His hurdles reappearance was stink.

The Conditional is 10lbs higher than last year’s 2nd and 8lbs higher than Ultima bunched finish win. Hardly well handicapped. Could run well but something beats him.

Kildisart has a 3lb swing with The Conditional for a neck defeat in the Ultima. He’s possibly still got a lb or two in hand as the Pauling yard were awful last season. His reappearance over hurdles was decent. Leading player.

De Rasher Counter is too high, not convinced last year’s renewal was that good and decent 5lb claim on the day was massive. His hurdle reappearance was better than expected so in good form he could run very well again but not handicapped to win.

Sam Brown was favourite for the Reynoldstown but didn’t go a yard on the day. Easy 2/2 in other chases (incl 3m on heavy) means he may be classy and still very much unexposed. Although only 8 career starts may leave him inexperienced. Bumper form was top drawer and didn’t get a chance to show his worth over hurdles. His prep, conceding weight to all, at Carlisle was a perfectly fine reappearance. This has been mentioned as the target so I assume still is.

Regal Encore will go to Ascot next. Wholestone, Benatar, Champagne Court (Wincanton bound), Black Op & Spiritofthegames will not appreciate this 3m2f trip. Ballyoptic was bad last weekend. Yala Enki is prepping for the Welsh National. Vinndication was a little disappointing last weekend as well – wouldn’t think he jumps quick/straight enough for a big field handicap.

Slate House would be interesting as a G1 winning novice last term but he looks to be heading for the Paddy Power first. His pace might be better for that trip than this longer one. Siruh du Lac (moved yard) surely goes Paddy Power first too. And is unlikely to want this trip.

I think Secret Investor was ready to go at Chepstow when many were not. There’s not enough in his formbook to suggest a big win off 159 is likely. Stablemate Truckers Lodge got a stone for his Midlands National win, that’s a fair chunk that’ll take something special to overcome. Chepstow a better target perhaps?

Ok Corral and Beware the Bear (twice 4th) would need a career best a month shy of their 11th birthday, not for me. Mister Malarky is an inconsistent exposed looking handicapper now.

Imperial Aura will get a few lbs for his Carlisle win and connections won’t fancy this (confirmed today). Coo Star Sivola is off a long time.

Blaklion and La Bague Au Roi are regressive and hard to fancy. Ardlethen finished lame last weekend. Flying Angel is not good enough.

Aye Right got 4lbs for his Charlie Hall effort. It’s probably lenient enough. Rated 146 he finished 5L behind a 161 and beat 152/147 rated horses a long way. Granted many underperformed in the Charlie Hall but an 8lb raise may have been warranted. Unexposed in staying handicaps it’s no surprise the fancy prices are going today. He was quite inexperienced as a 7yo when a decent enough 5th in the RSA. He certainly has the right profile for this. Even his Kelso reappearance form is strong.

Danny Whizzbang has a likeable profile. 7yo second season chaser, not exposed in handicaps, won a 3m novice chase at this Newbury meeting last year. That day he was the outsider of 3 as his rivals had winning chasing experience so it was a decent run. His following two efforts in good novice company were a little disappointing but with previous wind problems perhaps first time is the best time to catch him. He goes to Wincanton though.

Two for Gold was beaten favourite on his recent seasonal reappearance but over a less than optimum trip I think it was an ok prep for the Hennessy. He got 2lbs for it though which could make all the difference. Another of last year’s better staying novice chasers he’s on the shortlist. If the Reynoldstown wasn’t his true running, and there’s a fair chance it wasn’t as Ascot was a bog that day, it wouldn’t surprise were he to land a big handicap. I’d like to see him ridden with more restraint and jump straighter than last time. 20/1 might interest many.

Hold The Note finished a half length behind Two For Gold in a January Novice Chase (Whatmore in 3rd has held up the form as solid). A 3lb swing for HTN will help here. He followed that run with a good 3rd in the Novice Handicap at Cheltenham. As a 6yo. If the extended 3m2f is to his benefit he can win off this mark. This guy was disappointing on his most recent appearance but all the chasers from that yard have badly needed their first outing. Still a novice they might find something easier for him.

Kapcorse, Cloth Cap, The Mighty Don, Potterman, The Hollow Ginge, Django Django & Lamanver Pippin – can we just say they are not good enough and move on. Shout if one of them require a second (or first) look.

In summary –

Back: Sam Brown 33/1 e/w and Aye Right 16/1 e/w

Might be worth a bet if target confirmed: Hold the Note 50/1

Could easily run into a place at a decent price: Kildisart 20/1, De Rasher Counter 25/1

Saturday 31st Oct

What a terrific days racing in store.

Down Royal

Firstly – Gordon Elliott might go through the card here.

1.50 Gordon & JP with multiple runners here. Ten Ten won his maiden at this meeting around here in 2017 before missing plenty of time. He was a decent novice chaser last term, winning a beginners and getting up to an official rating of 137. Back over hurdles he races off 124. Might not be off a yard but happy to chance at a big price.

Others who appeal at each-way prices include Drop the Anchor who won a good handicap hurdle at Listowel last time. And Golden Jewel hasn’t won in a good while but a repeat of the Leopardstown February effort would see him go very close.

2.25 Presenting Percy will want more of a stamina test. Slight suspicion the Grand National is the plan which will see a quiet early season. Delta Work was poor here last year and not much better the year before on his seasonal reappearance. The Storyteller beat a whole load of nothing last time. He has never quite looked up to proper G1 class. And some of Gordon’s are needing the run. So Chriss Dream is nearly the default but I’m not sure he’s quite up to consistent G1 level either and may prefer more cut underfoot. He was good first itme last season and Henry had the big winner today. Maybe but no idea.

3.00 The racefit Easy Game getting 2lbs off Samcro & Battleoverdoyen. Firstly, I don’t rate the latter at all. This is a match for me.

If you ignore the Limerick run where Samcro apparently choked that led to his wind-op, his chase form reads 1F1, with the F being a likely G1 Drinmore victory, it’s top class. Right up there with his novice hurdle campaign.

I’m not sure why but I don’t trust the form of Easy Game’s recent victory. And if you strip it out his overall form is a class below (155 ish) that of Samcro (160 ish).

I trust Gordon to have Samcro ready as he’s fairly fragile, especially his wind, so sending him in have cooked wouldn’t be ideal. Back the best horse in the race.

3.35 Cuneo is well handicapped on his hurdles best and the step back up to 3miles will definitely suit. 2m4f last time would be too sharp for him. No harm having a run to knock the cobwebs off, he can take a decent step forward from it. A decent price, a good 5lb claimer up and his second start for Gordon there’s plenty of positives.

Ascot

3.05 I was a big Hang In There fan last season. It didn’t really work out for him but I can see him being far better than his 139 mark this term. After having a run he should be ready to go. Stable form is a worry. Without going through the race in detail having small win only play.

3.40 Why are the persevering with Might Bite. Turning 12. Maybe he’s showing something – a mark of 152. Maybe. Black Corton isn’t handicapped to win, he’s not as good as the likes of Frodon. Adrien du Pont doesn’t always get home over 3miles. Although he has won off this mark and the yard are going well so wouldn’t be shocked if he shows well. Regal Encore wants it softer, Blaklion is easily ignored and Walk in the Mill is getting ready for the Becher. Whatmore was beat off this mark in two spring handicaps, he wouldn’t appeal at all at 5/1.

Militarian won first time out last season, at Ascot, off a mark just 1lb lower. Easy case to make. Easier at 33/1 though, he’s been well picked by now, 16/1.

Valtor is some yoke. He debuted in a 3yo bumper and is still going turning 12 in 2mts time. 112 is his Ascot form. The first being an impressive course & distance handicap chase win off 148 that saw his mark go to 160. Back to 150 now despite running well without winning in the spring he has a live chance. Some decent efforts off a break and Nicky has had enough winners lately to have no doubts they can be ready. No surprise if this is his main target actually.

Wetherby

2.45 I tweeted a few times about this race during the week. Disappointed Slate House hasn’t shown up and I’ll be more disappointed if Wholestone goes and wins. He’s too short for me now. I’ve maintained it’s a race that may not take too much winning with so many question-marks around the market leaders so I’m happy to take a small chance at abig price about the race fit, in-form, improving Chapmans Hype

3.20 Charlie Hall is the hardest race of the weekend to solve. The favourite, I mean Vinndication, is way too short now. He was only 4th in the Ultima last time. Sorry but he’s well and truly in the overhyped pile for me. Sam Spinner was a silly price all week but is gradually driftin tot he correct one. This is quite the step up for him.

La Bague Au Roi was dreadful all of last season but there’s a reason she was sent off favourite here 12mts ago. Maybe the recent wind-op was all she needed. I’m not a big believer in trainer quotes but if you were: Greatrex said: “La Bague Au Roi has had a run this year, which helps, and we’ve subsequently tinkered with her wind. “Whatever that did, it seems to have ignited a flame somewhere – because she seems to be back to her best.

Definitly Red won a bad renewal of this in 2018 but has been a solid G2 160 chase since. That might nearly be enough to see him involved.

Maybe just back the best horse in the race. Cyrname jumped straight as a gun barrel at Ascot last year. A superb performance first time out. If you believe Nicholls he’s not as fit this time around but has done as much work as Frodon had. On decent ground he’s the fastest chaser in here and that could be decisive. Remember he was rated 176 before he beat Altior. 11/4 and many of these not in his league. I’m tempted.

In summary:

Small plays: Hang in There, Chapmans Hype, Cyrname, Ten Ten, Chriss Dream, Cuneo

Main bets: Valtor e/w, Samcro

Wetherby & Down Royal

Friday

2.10 Wetherby

Louis Vac Pouch – wasn’t off a yard first time out. Jumped off behind, stayed behind and came home in his own time. Getting involved here will require a significant step forward but this seems to be a track where Kirby has plenty of success (and runners) so I expect more effort.

Now off 139 he was a decent 7th in the Festival Plate off 144 (final start of last season). Has won over hurdles off 132 (went up to 145) so the current handicap mark is okay. That hurdle win was over 3m but has plenty of winning form at 2m & 2m4f so this 2m3f should be fine. He wasn’t always trying when in Henry Oliver’s care.

Born Survivor is the danger. He won this in 2018 (off 139) and was 4th last year (off 152). Reappearing off 149 he could go close. He goes well fresh and the Skelton yard are going fairly well of late but soft ground would be an issue. 4/1 is short enough.

Happy Diva is 11lbs higher than when beaten into 2nd in this 12mts ago, she’ll need a career best. Two for Gold wants 3miles, this may be a Hennessy prep. Stable form is a worry for Joke Dancer. Both Huntsman Son & The Unit have been off for almost 2yrs so may be up against it first time.

4 places 12 runners is generous for those with a Skybet account. Not mad about backing this guy each-way myself.

1pt win Louis Vac Pouch 10/1

Down Royal

12.40 Farouk D’alene & 3.00 Envoi Allen don’t look sensible to oppose. Both should win impressively.

1.15 I want to oppose Queen’s Brook. 2miles on decent ground around Down Royal – I think she’ll find this too sharp and speedy to be at her best. And it’s not like her reappearance was brilliant. However all the same comments probably apply to Brave Way. She has no form at this minimum trip.

The Getaway Star is my pick. Her bumper form is decent. At Cork she defeated Getaway Gorgeous (now 130 hurdler) and before that defeated Larquebuse (won 3 times since). Trying to give 11lbs to Panic Attack was difficult at Market Rasen but finishing 2nd she beat home plenty of other winners. The yard have had a few run well without winning in recent weeks.

Assuming 8 runners it’s a fine race for an each-way bet.

1pt e/w The Getaway Star 14/1

1.50 Abacadabras is the second Elliott fav I want to oppose. I was on him for the Supreme and do rate him but will always find it easy to oppose him. He has a little quirk in him. He’s fairly genuine but certainly not tough. Was in front too soon at Cheltenham and would’ve been better having something to aim at. The other negative for him will always (until proved otherwise) be his jumping. It’s not always perfect and at Down Royal the last two hurdles are inside the 2f pole, the last 150yds out, and a mistake at either could be difficult to recover from. First time out giving 6/8lbs to mid-140 horses means he’ll need to run to a fair level first time out.

I wrote about Aspire Tower here: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2020/10/22/cheltenham-2021-longshots/

Given he jumped and hung left a touch last time I don’t want him here. Stablemate Jason the Militant was a 25/1 128 rated horse when taking a G2 in February. I’d like to see him do it again before I’d trust he’s up to this class. Heavy ground might’ve helped him that day at Naas too.

Sixshooter had really smart bumper form but disappointed a little last season after opening his account first time out. He looked to leave that level of form behind when beating Kilfenora 4L giving him 6lbs. Sixshooter didn’t jump brilliantly that day either so there may be more to come from him. As a result of the win, the handicapper upped him to 147, making him the second highest rated in here. He gets a few lbs off all and has the advantage of a hurdle race under his belt for sharpness.

Only the 7 runners so win only

1pt win Sixshooter 11/1

Cheltenham 2021 – Longshots

The last piece was a bit ‘too obvious’ talking about the top of the market and the champions returning. Here’s five selections that are a little more from left field. Ones you may not need or want to back just yet but worth considering perhaps.

Aspire Tower – Champion Hurdle – 50/1

Re-watch the Triumph Hurdle, he jumped really poorly, often to the left and he hung that way a bit too. Something was amiss, it was far from his best effort, yet he still finished 2nd. The fall in his previous run surely didn’t help. And he had been on the go a long time having come off the flat before Henry sent him jumping. Described as a scopey horse who’ll be better physically this season. I know they all say that, but as a 4yo coming off the flat it’s interesting.

Goes to Down Royal first for that second season hurdle (Coeur Sublime won it last yr) and may avoid Abacadabras & Honeysuckle then by going down what I call the Espoir D’Allen route picking up weaker G3 races. A few victories are likely and would see him enter what is not a particularly deep Champion Hurdle picture.

Presenting Percy – Gold Cup – 25/1

Pat Kelly to Gordon Elliott is a massive trainer upgrade. Now for the excuses: He finished lame when going off fav in the 2019 GC. Twelve months later the slow pace in last year’s GC would not have suited but he still wasn’t too far away when falling 2-out.

Davy’s style of riding him, especially over 3miles at Leopardstown, makes things difficult for him. They often go slow and he stays further yet Davy rides him patiently. He was very easy on him in the Savills Chase and then made his effort too early in the IGC. They went slow enough on both occasions – he needs a good test of stamina.

3m2f at Cheltenham, off a decent pace with some cut in the ground, ideal. Just like his RSA Chase victory (Monalee & Al Boum Photo behind). When/If it all falls right for him I think there’s a big pot left in him. Hopefully the talk of a Grand National doesn’t mean he’s not off until April.

Asterion Forlonge – Marsh Chase – 33/1

This one is risky/foolish. Don’t forget Asterion Forlonge went off favourite for the Supreme. At the Dublin Racing Festival he beat Easywork 9L. Easywork had won 3 in a row and then went and got within 4L of Envoi Allen when beating everything else in the Ballymore.

In the Supreme AF jumped violently to his right. Giving away so much ground at each hurdle that finishing 4th between Chantry House & Allart can be deemed a good effort; he has a huge engine. Prior to that Cheltenham hiccup and his G1 success at Leopardstown he won a ptp, bumper and maiden hurdle. Perfect 4 from 4. He did jump consistently to his right which is a worry, but nothing compared to the Cheltenham efforts and hopefully fences will straighten him up a bit.

The owners also have Shishkin (Arkle) and The Big Getaway (RSA) and if they all turn out to be G1 animals and stay fit through to Cheltenham I think Asterion Forlonge looks the one to be suited by the middle-distance. It’s a high risk ante-post bet though as if he keeps up his habit of jumping to the right a path via Fairyhouse & Punchestown without Cheltenham is easy to plot.

Notebook – Champion Chase – 33/1

Went off fav for the Arkle (I thought he was a bet at as low as 5/2) after winning 4 in a row. Beaten 27L into 6th it clearly wasn’t his true running. He had a false start and then missed the standing start, it wouldn’t have helped. The ground may have been a bit slow and soft for him also. Ahead of him the front two pulled clear with Fakir D’oudairies beaten 1.5L. At Leopardstown Notebook beat him the same distance giving him a 7lb weight for age allowance as well. Hard not to think that the very best of Notebook would’ve went close in Cheltenham.

At Notebook’s Arkle prep in February he bolted before the start so I’m happy to mark up the win a little. Henry made an interesting point that Cash Back who ran him close that day also ran well below par at Cheltenham, perhaps both feeling the effects of a tough battle. Cash Back, like Notebook, also semi-bolted at the false-start.

In a race with question-marks over all the top few I’m happy to put a line through Notebook’s Arkle effort and back him here on the form that made him Arkle fav. A year with no crowds at the racecourse might actually suit him.

Cobblers Way – RSA Chase – 50/1

Inspired by Notebook; a Gigginstown novice chaser that you wouldn’t necessarily have picked based on hurdles form.

A Midnight Run comeback would be interesting. His bumper form was top drawer. Beacon Edge is another I like but he looks to be staying over hurdles.

Assemble – from Joseph’s stable tour: “He’s a big horse that always looked the type to do better over fences and his schooling over them has been very good so far”. It took a while but when he opened his bumper account it was at the expense of Appreciate It & Eskylane. A maiden hurdle followed before credible efforts behind Latest Exhibition and Five O’Clock. That’s solid form so if you believe what Joseph says there’s a chance he makes up into a G1 chaser.

Cobblers Way has strong form and certainly looks to be a big staying chaser. A ptp 2nd was followed by a bumper win and then 212P over hurdles. The 2’s were behind Andy Dufresne and Latest Exhibition and the win was at the expense of Sempo & The Big Getaway. Strong form; if he finds another 10lbs over hurdles he’s a G1 animal – in Henry’s yard there’s no better place going chasing. If he turns out to be really good he’ll go for the RSA so that’s what I’ll back him for. The NH Chase always a possible target too.

Ok now I’m definitely done writing about Cheltenham for a few months. Focus on the more immediate stuff. Cobra de Mai at the weekend for example…

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