First thoughts on all the races priced up. And a few bet ideas. And at the bottom there’s a bit (not much) of a 2020 review. Enjoy. Hope you are well.
Cross Country Chase
How many ante-post previews started here? Always be different.
Easysland’s SP this year was 3/1, winning by 17L. Fav was 8/11, it’ll never be a deep and open race.
100% it’s his target (someone please tell me they haven’t mentioned the Gold Cup?!); this year he was just a 6yo beating a 10yo Tiger Roll who previously had been the best X-Country horse ever. Goes off 2/5 and wins eased down.
Easysland 2/1 (what’s your max ante-post bet?)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Politologue will be a 10yo and is unlikely to be good enough two years in a row. Altior will be an 11yo and looking a little less invincible of late. Defi might step up in trip? Or might have an issue? Although saying that he might just be drastically over-priced at 14/1 considering he went off 2/5 and didn’t run his race for whatever reason. He has won at 2 Festivals, won 2 G1s this season & beat the Champion Chaser in the Shloer. Assuming that his QMCC effort was just a blip that is forgettable (yard were rancid all week) he might just be the one to beat.
Beforehand and again afterwards it didn’t look a brilliant Arkle (better than 2019 alright) – the winner might be a fraction underrated and overpriced but also has a mares’ chase option now too if she comes up short in any prep run. Fakir has now been beaten in two Fez novice events; he’s below top drawer. 50/1 Mister Fisher might be the best bet from that crop.
By far the best horse in the betting is Chacun Pour Soi. This year we had the double with Min as that DRF form looked real strong, as it was on the clock. Min winning goes a long way to suggesting we were right. Obviously fragile. If he gets there off the back of a DRF win he goes off 6/4 (was 9/4 versus an unbeaten Defi and back-Altior)
Chacun Pour Soi 6/1 (risky so maybe a half stake)
Defi Du Seuil 14/1 (saver)
Novice Chases
RSA – I’d lean Marsh with Envoi Allen but somewhat happy to avoid both races until we know more. Hard to split the 4 Albert Bartlett horses – they’re all very good. Maybe Fury Road (wants cut) & Monkfish are the two stronger/slower stayers as Latest Exhib & Thyme Hill have better hurdle form over shorter. All stay 3miles, all ran well at the Fez and look to be G1/2 standard. On second thoughts Monkfish is the one I like most. He was very free on the first circuit, then led from two out giving them all a target but stayed on strongest of all.
I see the angle for both the Big Getaway and the Big Breakaway (more so, he didn’t jump or travel great at Cheltenham and probably wants further) to improve for experience, age, fences etc. but both need to step up. Screams race to avoid for me (same kind of applies to Marsh & NHC)
As someone else pointed out – 50/1 Commander of Fleet looks a little big. Although he could be dead? PTP winner, G1 winner, split Indo & Allaho at Fez. The same price is also available for Bright Forecast who’s due back after a year on the sidelines.
Marsh – I do think this is Envoi Allen’s most likely target with Gordon having just won it with Samcro, another Ballymore winner. 6/1 – I’d rather back it than lay it anyhow! But he needs to go chasing, take to chasing, and not be quick enough for an Arkle but show plenty of pace so the RSA isn’t tempting. There’s no bet against him (yet) anyhow.
Arkle
Notebook was 4/4 incl 2x G1 and drifted to 3/1 in the run-up. One suspects if Shiskin is 4/4 incl 2x G1s he’ll go off 4/6. (no need to point out why, just saying) He looks the real deal and the hype is certainly there. Even though he’s 5/1 and it’s 20/1 the next likely runner I kind of think he’s a bet. Looks like a chaser, won a ptp, stays well but had enough to win the Supreme despite a poor trip.
Can see the Captain Guinness appeal – a pure 2miler in the right hands to go chasing. He was learning on the job throughout this season and should be a more polished sort next year. Andy Dufresne beaten either side of Punchestown lets this form down though.
Klassical Dream is another Supreme winner who should go chasing. I still hold out hope but lesson learned, probably best to wait and see with this guy.
50/1 Cedarwood Road – is there a market bias for the Cheltenham horses (yes, obviously, or rightly so) anyhow… this fella is a real future chaser, a big weak 5yo campaigned with the future in mind. He has won his last two and the form of his Naas win is strong with the runner up finishing ahead of Andy Dufresne in a G2 the time before. Davy gave CR plenty to do whilst looking like he wanted to be as easy as possible on the horse, but they still got up to win. Sure, he might stay further but a strong traveller with plenty of pace I’d aim him at the Arkle.
Shiskin 5/1
Cedarwood Road 50/1
Novice Hurdles
The first two home in the Champion Bumper pulled a bit clear; both very smart and highly thought of before the race. Arguably neither were suited by the race. They went slow early – Ferny Hollow held up last off a slow pace is never ideal. And Appreciate It would’ve rather a stronger stamina test (both were v free at times). Best two bumper horses – Willie will try keep them apart if they continue to be two of the best. Appreciate It has loads of pace, Patrick had to get cover for him, wouldn’t be rushing to step up to 3m, can do that over fences.
Cheveley Park have both Ballyadam and Malone Rd also. Neither look short of pace so maybe Ferny Hollow is stepped up in trip but really hard to see him being anything other than a 2miler.
Forged in Fire beat Ferny Hollow at Leopardstown. But Patrick went from the front and he didn’t settle at all that day. Winner was flat out for a while and looked a real stayer.
Farouk D’alene is another with decent looking form. With Giggi not really supporting the Champion Bumper there’s a fair chance a few good ones are left at home.
Don’t have too many (any) bets in the Supreme; the value is on the day!!
Ferny Hollow Supreme 14/1 & Appreciate It Ballymore 16/1 . Singles & 254/1 Double.
Albert Bartlett – Bob Olinger looks very smart, he won a good Gowran ptp bumper. Winning a ptp before making all in a 2m2f bumper on soft ground certainly hints a strong stayer. Henry won the Albert Bartlett recently; it’s gone away from the dour stayer race it was. 33/1 worth a gamble.
Bob Olinger 33/1
Mares Novice – what am I even doing looking at this. 12/1 Gypsy Island is too big, the 7/1 in places looks more accurate but it’s very risky.
The Glancing Queen’s 8/23 in the Champion Bumper can get marked up a bit as she had no prep run and King’s were not in great form all week. Her 2019 form behind Envoi Allen and beating Minella Melody would have her in the top bracket here. 20/1 is mildly tempting.
Willie has twice won this with second season novices so Hook Up 50/1 might appeal. She got a strange last to first ride on debut (beaten by Triumph winner; plenty of ability) before disappointing in the Triumph. Let’s just move on.
Mares Hurdle
The 2019 version was terrific with the big two fighting it out and Elfie & Roksana well beaten off. Benie could/should go Stayers if Paisley isn’t back to being bombproof. Honeysuckle (3yrs younger than Benie) is bred to chase but I suspect the owner would rather mop this up now.
The 2020 Coral Cup, Martin Pipe & Triumph winners were all mares, who will obviously look to step into this company.
Concertista has a lot of speed, with the fav flopping she might’ve won a diabolical race. Dame De Compagnie only got 8lbs for winning a 25 runner Coral Cup by over 2L. Lenient. I’d nearly put her away for 12mts. Burning Victory won a G1 hurdle with a poor round of jumping, mind you she was even worse winning her maiden. First jumped a hurdle in public in late Feb though gives her room to improve in that department. Obviously, Goshen unseated but did the race fall apart a little upfront then allowing BV came from last to pick them off? She looks like another half mile would be ok. This would be the best/obvious target imo but whether she’s truly G1 level I’m not certain. It did look a decent Triumph before-hand.
Honeysuckle connections can send Minella Melody novice chasing (both 6yo both won ptp) and with Envoi Allen looking a quality 2m4f Irish novice chaser, Henry having the Arkle winner also being a mare, I think there’s enough reasons for them to leave Honeysuckle hurdling. Hattons Grace there for the taking, there’s no good Irish champion or stayers hurdle horse – she could mop up.
Honeysuckle 4/1 (I accept it’s risky)
Burning Victory 20/1 (saver)
Champion Hurdle
On just her 6th hurdle start, as a 6yo, Epatante was an impressive winner. And she beat all the right horses with them well spread out. Supasundae, Petit M & Silver Streak all roughly 12L behind give it a rock-solid look to me.
The 5yr olds were all crap, as usual, it’s so hard for them to make the transition. No matter how good Goshen looked he’ll always have a slight question mark around his jumping and the old course is quicker sharper and more of a jumping test. He’s a galloping monster rather than slick champion hurdler.
Speaking of slick pacey hurdlers – Sharjah at 33/1 is an e/w bet – if you like e/w ante-post (I hate it). He will only be an 8yo next year and was/is the second best 2m hurdler around this season despite not getting decent ground on the Tuesday. If anything were to happen the mare I’d be happy holding 33s, he wouldn’t even need to be good all winter as Willie has shown it’s all about March.
The champion hurdler & triumph winner (kinda) are the same price for next year’s champion – the mind boggles. Honeysuckle won’t run here, Saldier has to prove he can stay fit. Buveur D will be 10 and JP/Nicky might target Aintree instead if the mare is ok. Shiskin & Envoi go chasing. Each-way Abacadabras is a fine angle too but I wonder if he has it in him to win a Champion Hurdle. Would need everything to fall right.
Epatante 4/1
Sharjah 33/1 (e/w, saver)
Stayers Hurdle
Firstly Lisnagar Oscar 25/1 is too big. He’s better than Emitom, Bacardys, Ronald Pump etc. But there’s surely something better than him. Speculation seems to be Thyme Hill is the likely novice to hang around hurdling but many a failed chaser ends up here too.
At their best Benie & Paisley are 170+ horses and nobody else is within a parish of them. Obvious risks attached to backing either. So increase the reward; two plays –
Double Benie with Honeysuckle for the Mares – 44/1 – Benie is more likely to go here if Honeysuckle looks hot and if Benie is going here obviously Honeysuckle should/would be shorter.
Double Paisley with Benie for the Mares – 48/1 – that’s a bit 2020 perhaps but if Paisley is back and Benie does target the mares (especially if Honeysuckle is absent) suspect both are closer to odds on than 8/1.
Ryanair
2020 (after-timing alert) I backed Min at most prices from 8/1 to 3/1. He only had one target in mind and duly delivered on the big day. A genuine 170+ horse – there’s not many of them out there! 10/1 opening show for 2021, let’s not overthink things. He’ll be a 10yo but with only 21 career starts he’s got plenty of mileage left in him. A year off after joining Willie, a year off with injury as a novice chaser and now a curtailed 3-run 2020 season he’ll be as good as ever next year – it’ll take a good one to wrestle the Ryanair crown off him.
A Plus Tard didn’t travel or jump to the best of his ability in this year’s renewal. 3yrs younger than Min connections will fancy another cut at him. If Defi du Seuil ends up here it’s because his form has regressed in 2021. Simply the Betts & Imperial Aura are up to 157 so have a stone to go but I think I’d aim for the Gold Cup with both.
Samcro, Melon and Faugheen fighting out the Marsh is a funny one, not your typical novices. Although the first two are only 8yrs old, all 3 arguably have their best days behind them. None of them look like they’ll bridge the 10-14lb gap to Min. Now saying that I’ve read they were better on the clock than Min. Allaho is an intriguing one. He jumped and travelled really-well but didn’t quite get home in the RSA. A step back in trip perhaps? On good ground I’m not convinced he would have had the pace for the Marsh horses – maybe he’s a bit trip-less. One paced non-stayer. Weird. He’s only 6yo and lightly enough raced – if he could settle better I’d train him as a Gold Cup horse.
Min 10/1
A Plus Tard 16/1
Gold Cup
Al Boum Photo – maybe he’ll only be peaking as a 9yr old. Will only go to Tramore first. No Punchestown this season a blessing for him perhaps. But Santini off a stronger pace might turn it around or Lostintransaltion off a better preparation (and better stable form) might improve past both. Kemboy didn’t jump at all well – he’s better than that. Topofthegame might be back. Minella Indo is a G1 staying chaser. Champ will appreciate the extra two furlongs. It looks like all going well we’ll have another terrific renewal. No bet at this stage.
After all of that I’ve had a few retirement multiples including various combinations of: Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It, Shiskin, Epatante, Easysland, Min, Chacun Pour Soi and Envoi Allen. We live in hope.
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I set about reviewing the 2020 Cheltenham Festival race by race and then thought fuck that. So, here’s as far as I got:
Supreme
Abacadabras has some engine and cruising speed. Will never win too far. He was more genuine than I thought without being tough. Race didn’t pan out perfectly for him at all. Giggi breed chasers but with Shiskin, Envoi etc. perhaps a Champion Hurdle tilt? Top 2 very smart, rest a bit meh.
Obviously Asterion F should be going righthanded. Allart & Chantry got the run of the race and ultimately didn’t beat much home as two crashed out and Fiddler was poor. Putting them in the overrated category. Happy enough to put a line through all the Tizzard horses that ran. Hobbs & King similarly. Edwardstone had little chance on a testing surface, testing track and strong pace. With no spring/summer racing when will he see decent ground again.
Capt Guiness young and lightly raced has a future. Elixir not open to as much improvement.
Arkle
Notebook was fine pre-race and jumped well; perhaps not top drawer? Although surely better than that. Brewin’ didn’t jump well – lack of a prep run perhaps? Neither did Itchy Feet on Thurs – question for Olly Murphy?
Front 2 were miles clear. The mare is clearly very good. The Irish way ahead, same in the Marsh Chase. Drinmore form worked out (as did the Royal Bond & Hattons Grace I guess) Rouge Vif didn’t get a great ride or just lacked tactical speed at crucial time.
Ultima
Big River would’ve enjoyed this strong test, it’s his minimum. Cobra de Mai was eye-catching considering he didn’t get the ground required – he is on a winning mark. King’s novice gets a pass due to stable-form & Tizzard’s was bad too. Cepage probably didn’t stay. Vindication did a bit too much too soon perhaps. Discorama lacked the pace required when it heated up.
Champion
We mocked the race beforehand so now I’ll do a 180 and say its good form. The best horse won, rather impressively, beating the right horses all well spread out with the rags hammered. Only 6yo and lightly raced the likes of Abracadabras or Goshen will need to be elite to give her 7lbs. Sharjah is legit when right.
Mares
Townend not Puppy made a balls of this. He lost his spot (to Rachael) before 2out and had to come around everyone. Also since the pace was far too slow that was on him to do something about it riding the stayer. Nothing much to note going forward. With Paisley not so invincible I suspect Benie becomes a 3miler. There’s a mares’ chase for Honeysuckle but they’ll hardly shy away from winning a few of these?
Nov Hcap
It certainly worked out (again) but going forward the Novice handicap on Trials Day will see horses over-bet for the Festival. This is a bad version of the Plate, do away with it please.
Galvin got a fair clatter at the first but had loads of time to get back into it. The front 2, even 3, had plenty in hand on the handicapper.
NHC
Nothing
Ballymore
The Big Breakaway was only a 5yo with two handy track starts and no race in 3mts – he had plenty to learn and given the yard ran badly all week his effort was eye-catching. Over fences and further he could be a serious weapon yet. Already a 3m ptp winner and related to Kildisart he should get the RSA trip no problem.
I’ve lost interest….
Cee Bee Scribbles 