Grand National – Aintree – 4m2f – 5.15pm – Sat 10th Apr
Cloth Cap is officially 14lbs well-in but if he were to run in a handicap off his new mark of 162 I’d argue he’s terribly handicapped. He got a solo on the lead at Kelso last time whilst the favourite and second home, Aso, didn’t jump or travel great. Running here off just 148 is still 12lbs higher than his Hennessy winning mark. An impressive winner he gave a flawless display of jumping from the front that day but it wasn’t a strong renewal of the Hennessy. The 2nd & 3rd from that race were competitive since but haven’t won. The 4th & 5th are very average beasts. I’d say Cloth Cap is at most 5-6lbs well-in.
These fences are a different style so there’s no guarantee his recent excellent jumping will be such an asset again. And he’s highly unlikely to get an uncontested lead like he did the last twice. Any rain wouldn’t be ideal either, he wants genuine good spring ground. More than enough negatives to move on from the 4/1 favourite.
Any Second Now has a very likeable profile. A winner of the Kim Muir (a big field handicap chase that requires plenty of stamina) and a winner of a Grade 2 2mile chase last time (recent form, high class ability). That Kim Muir win was as a 7yo novice so to be only 9lbs higher 24mts later suggests there may be mileage in that mark of 152. He hasn’t run over a staying trip or tried too hard too often in the past few seasons. Primed for a big performance on the biggest of days.
Usually being up with the pace is an advantage in the Grand National but this year with the favourite being ridden aggressively from the front it’s likely the pace will be very strong throughout and it may pay to be ridden from a little off the pace. Any Second Now will be held up in midfield and ridden to challenge late.
Secret Reprieve is another who won last time out, the Welsh National over 3m6f, which shows stamina is no issue. An 8lb rise for that win wasn’t bad so he may still be well handicapped (although that race hasn’t worked out too well since) but as a 7yo with just 9 career starts to his name I have other concerns. As well as the experience factor I’d also be concerned if the ground was riding fairly fast on the day; his best has come on soft.
Soft ground brings me nicely to Kimberlite Candy. A winner of the Warwick Classic Chase (3m5f) tells us stamina is no issue and these unique fences won’t be an issue for Richie McLernon’s mount as he has twice finished 2nd in the Becher Chase. Two concerns would be good ground (more mud the better for him) and his handicap mark of 153 – there may not be much wiggle room left in that.
Burrows Saint is like Any Second Now, he showed this might be the right race for him in the spring of 2019 and has been waiting without trying too hard ever since. He has winning form on good ground, and softer. Had the stamina to bag an Irish Grand National. Enough experience for this sort of test (that Irish win came as just a 6yo novice) and plenty of class too. However, it wasn’t the greatest Irish National so a 12lb higher mark may actually be a little harsh. But the main negative I’d have is I didn’t like his prep run. Paul Townend was quiet on him, which was fair as a prep run, but I still felt his finishing effort was quite weak.
Minella Times is another for McManus. With plenty of form around 2m5f he’ll definitely have the ability to travel with the pace but once they go beyond 3miles it’s somewhat of a step into the unknown. His form this season is terrific with a win at Listowel followed by a Paddy Power Chase (big field staying handicap form) 2nd and a Dublin Racing Festival 2nd. The form of the latter has worked out very well. The 5th & 6th won handicap chases since. The 4th went close at Cheltenham, whilst the 3rd was beaten a neck next time. Off just 146 now I’d argue this improving 8yo could have as much in hand as Cloth Cap. Henry & Rachael to follow up a dream Cheltenham with the Grand National?
Discorama is winless in 10 starts going back to Nov’18. A proven stayer who has been competitive off this sort of mark I can see the case but he has plenty to prove.
Bristol de Mai won’t have the stamina for this. I know he looks like he’d gallop forever at 3m1f in Haydock mud but the 3m2f of the Cheltenham Gold Cup has looked too far for him. Another who’ll force the pace. He was ultimately a little disappointing last time and this year’s Haydock win has not worked out as trustworthy form.
Magic of Light was second to the amazing Tiger Roll in the last (2019) Grand National. He obviously doesn’t return and she’s just 5lbs higher so a case can be made. The fences and trip are no concern (can’t say that for certain about too many). But she’s not coming into this off a great run. The trip was too short but for me she still should’ve showed more at Cheltenham. Perhaps it’s all about Aintree and she’ll bounce back to her very best.
A repeat of his Welsh National win would give Potters Corner a chance but now 11yrs old and below best last time (wasn’t right post-race) means he has it all to prove. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue and his handicap mark doesn’t look too bad (just 4lbs higher than a decent Welsh National win) so if he is at his best he can go close.
Acapella Bourgeois will be another on the pace trying to make it. He’s also an 11yo and fairly highly tried so it’d be surprising if he was handicapped to win if taking to the test. He did beat Burrows Saint last time and wasn’t far behind him when 3rd in the 2019 Irish National so yeah he might get into it but not for me.
Milan Native is another Kim Muir winner (staying big field handicap chase) which is a positive. Perhaps we can ignore the last run as he lost a shoe and may have needed it after 3mts off and a wind-op. A bit to prove but a big run wouldn’t surprise.
Farclas is another for Giggi/Gordon/Foster outfit. He’s in-form, very well handicapped off 146, will have no trouble travelling off a fast pace and handling decent ground. The unknown is the last mile of stamina.
Anibale Fly was in better form when placed in this race in 2018 & 2019. I suspect he’ll jump round again and stay the marathon trip but very unlikely to be good enough at this stage of his career.
Lord du Mesnil has a chance. Officially 5lbs well-in having won the Trial race at Haydock. 2nd in the 2020 NHC at Cheltenham is a race that Tiger Roll & Rathvinden have used to prove stamina pre GN in recent times. He has jumped around these fences before, the trip shouldn’t be a worry, the more rain and mud the better for him. Another front runner…
Class Conti was apparently bought for Aintree so a career best for the Mullins inmate wouldn’t surprise. 2nd & 3rd in the past Thyestes and 4th in the Leinster National was a ok prep. He’ll need to find more. So far he doesn’t look good enough to win as strong a race as this.
Soft ground would give Lake View Lad a chance. He has been 3rd in an Ultima at Cheltenham off this mark and won at Aintree (normal course) earlier this season. He’s a fairly high-class staying handicapper at his best but was poor the last twice.
Ok Corral has a Doncaster win that gives him a chance but it’s 1.5yrs ago and he has only raced once 9badly) since. Plenty to prove.
Vieux Lion Rouge has done all his winning off 6-8lb lower marks. Aged 12 he’ll need, an unlikely to come, career best. Beaten 40L in the last 4 renewals.
Jett has won a few graded races on spring ground. He’s not a bad horse and 150 rating is workable having peaked at 158 last season. He’s a strong traveller which will suit but staying must be a major question-mark as was his last effort.
The Storyteller is badly handicapped after picking up a soft G1 chase in Down Royal.
Some Neck has run well in Cross Country races this season so may love this test. Handles good ground and likely to stay. Ticks a few boxes, I just wonder if he’s good enough.
Chris’s Dream is unlikely to stay and was poor last time. Same two comments apply to both Balko des Flos and Cabaret Queen. Kauto Riko has no staying form to his name making him impossible to fancy.
Mister Malarky has won decent 3m handicap chases in the past. He wasn’t awful last time and may step forward from it post wind-op. But he’s very unlikely to be good enough to win this off a career high 155.
Minellacelebration was an impressive Oct winner at Aintree and has other pieces of strong staying good ground form. A big run at a big price wouldn’t shock me.
Alpha Des Obeaux was targeting this for a while (and not trying sometimes as a result) but his recent form is still fairly poor. If there’s a 100/1 shot placed on the day it might be him.
Yala Enki wants it softer and isn’t handicapped to win. Another who’ll force a strong pace.
Takingrisks has won a Scottish National (4m, good ground) and last time out he won a really strong renewal of the SkyBet Chase proving his age is no obstacle. In form, stays and handles decent ground – that’s 3 of the main boxes ticked.
Ballyoptic has no chance. Definitely Red is the same, too old and wants it softer. Talkischeap looks to be in terrible form. Tout Est Permis is badly handicapped over fences. Shattered Love won’t stay and isn’t handicapped well enough to win. Give me a Copper and Blaklion have no chance either.
Canelo has already had 6 starts this season and looks a consistent staying chaser but is unlikely to be peaking in April or handicapped well enough to win in this quality of field.
The Long Mile needs to prove he’s good enough, will stay and is old/experienced enough. I’m happy to skip over him but I guess there’s a chance he goes well. He’s not the worst handicapped in here based on last effort behind Burrows Saint & Acapella.
Sub Lieutenant isn’t good enough and won’t stay. Hogan’s Height has won around these fences but at a lower level and shorter trip. Double Shuffle has been okay this season but he’s not up to what’s required here. Ami Desbois is similar. Ran well the last twice but doubt he’s good enough or well handicapped to feature if jumping well and staying. Fagan isn’t good enough.
Summary: there may be 40 runners but I think there’s only about a dozen who can actually go win it. And maybe another 10 who might run into a place. As much as half with no chance. Hopefully all the above makes that clear.
Of the 4 favourites I like the McManus duo more than Cloth Cap & Burrows Saint. Plenty of rain would bring Kimberlite Candy & Secret Reprieve into it but for now I don’t like them as much.
Takingrisks is the best bet at big prices. He may be 12 but is in great form. Farclas isn’t a certain runner or stayer but he’s on the shortlist for now.
Best Bets: Any Second Now 10/1, Minella Times 12/1, Farclas 33/1, Takingrisks 40/1
Can also make a case for: Lord du Mesnil 33/1 (especially on soft ground), Milan Native 25/1, Potters Corner 25/1, Some Neck 50/1, Minellacelebration 80/1.
Cee Bee Scribbles 