Jump back to Tuesday: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/tuesday-cheltenham-21/
Wednesday
Again a lot of this was written a full week before the Festival so it may not be perfectly up to date…
Ballymore Nov Hurdle
Three exciting novices and 20/1 bar, it’s not an each way race.
Team Mullins reached for the hood for free going Gaillard du Mesnil, it’d be a worry if PT doesn’t get him settled and covered up early. Then if coming from the pack he might need luck in running and I’m not sure he has the acceleration of a top class one. It took him a while to get to Stattler last time and the opposition here is far stronger. He’s a very good horse though, ran a great time at Xmas. Anything that beats him will be genuine G1 quality.
Bob Olinger, like Appreciate It on Tues, has only been beaten by Ferny Hollow. He is quick and uncomplicated. That’ll be a big thing against these two rivals. His Naas win is a top piece of form. 3 starts, one in good company but without a hard race and kept well fresh – he has had a perfect prep. How Blue Lord runs on Tues may give a minor indicator of the strength of his Naas win.
Bravemansgame has looked decent but he has not beaten much to date and may be vulnerable to a speedier horse on the new course. He looked to my uneducated eyes to be a strong galloping stayer last time.
Bet: Bob Olinger 5/2 – if he goes any shorter (currently 2/1) I’d skip over him. If Gaillard drifts to 3/1+ I’d happily back him instead.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase (RSA)
Monkfish runs near his best and jumps around safely and he’s far too good for this lot. It’s that simple. He looked terrific at Christmas and is a G1 Festival horse already. 8/11 is too short for me though. If all the Mullins favs get beat on Tuesday perhaps we’ll see closer to evens Wednesday morning then he’s in play but that’s unlikely.
After decs there’ll only be 6 runners so if you fancy one e/w back it before 10am Monday.
The battle for places is decent as I don’t think there isn’t much between The Big Breakaway, Sporting John, Dickie Diver and Eklat De Rire. Even Fiddlerontheroof isn’t useless. They’ve won plenty of races, including G1s, so despite there being an odds-on fav this is a decent renewal. No bet.
Coral Cup
Koshari was eye-catching at Leopardstown but he still got behind in a 3mile event. Now he did make a mistake early and perhaps PT just minded him from there on but I’ve a little doubt that he might not quite have the pace for this shorter test on better ground. His best form is on softer stuff.
This has been the plan for Grand Roi and I expect we’ll see far more than we have to date. But he hasn’t shown it yet and the trip is not certain to suit so I can skip over the 7/1 fav.
Gary Moore has been happy to tell us that Botox Has is being lined up for this all season. Take note of that sort of comment. His course form reads 211, the 2 coming behind Allmankind. The latter 1 being a 4L beating, giving 4lbs, to The Pink’n who ran very well next time out. Being dropped 4lbs for his last two efforts is generous and 142 probably underestimates him.
Thomas Darby isn’t mad about winning and isn’t very well handicapped but he’s a strong travelling classy sort who could sneak into the business end of this if played very late. 2nd in a Supreme on his only other Festival appearance.
Ganapathi is my main selection for the County Hurdle so an appearance here would be interesting. I expect You Raised Me Up to go for the County also. The Shunter would be respected as well here (don’t think he’ll run). Dysart Diamond shouldn’t be ignored as a Mullins second-string; she was 7/2f for a competitive handicap last time and was effectively brought down.
Guard Your Dreams would also appeal if he chooses this entry. A lightly raced 5yo novice he should be improving and coming from a competitive handicap is good match practice for this. The step up in trip really should suit (full-brother best at this trip on decent ground). He just couldn’t keep up with the pace at Newbury last time but it was a fine effort. How Soaring Glory & For Pleasure go on Tues might tell us more about that form line. Won 3 from 4 before that.
Shortlist at current prices: Botox Has 14/1, Thomas Darby 25/1, Giard Your Dreams 16/1, Dysart Diamond 25/1
QM Champion Chase
Chacun Pour Soi is a good thing. Sure, he is fragile, and this is his first trip to Cheltenham but he has dispatched the likes of Notebook, Put the Kettle On, Defi du Seuil, etc. with such ease in the past. This guy is the best horse going to Cheltenham, he’s 7+lbs better than all of these. A drift to evens or bigger on the day and he’s a right bet.
I’m against Altior. He’s now 11yo, had 3 runs in the past 2yrs, beaten in 2 of them and prior to that his 2019 win 2L better than Politologue wouldn’t be good enough this year. He doesn’t have the gears anymore, especially on decent ground.
Nube Negra is vastly overrated after winning a bad Kempton race (in a poor time). Politologue seems to go well when very fresh so having a poor outing in Jan is not ideal. First Flow beat him that day but he got a far better ride than his rivals, he’ll be vulnerable to closers at Cheltenham. He possibly is better going right-handed also. The Cheltenham hill tends to blunt Sceau Royal’s speed for all he’ll love the likely good ground and was decent at Newbury last time. Rouge Vif won a poor handicap in Oct, his graded form isn’t good enough.
Notebook is the one I like e/w and/or without the fav. He was ridden far too aggressively at DRF and will revert to more patient but prominent tactics here. Two flops at the Festival, an edgy sort, may be helped by having no fans. He also arguably didn’t flop over hurdles as he just wasn’t very good then and last year the combination of a hard race in Feb and then the false start are viable excuses. He holds PTKO from Xmas and the best of his novice form beating Fakir is marginally better than hers also. The mare will have plenty of competition for the lead and she’s possibly better on deeper ground (making it a 2m test of stamina rather than speed).
PTKO, First Flow, Politologue will take each other on and make this a real test of speed from the start. It’ll allow CPS sit in and challenge fairly late as he did in Leopardstown last time. The pace may also put pressure on Altior’s jumping and cruising speed to keep up. And it should give Sceau Royale and Notebook a nice tow into the race.
Bets: Chacun Pour Soi 10/11, Notebook w/o (place only) 16/1, Irish 1-2-3 is possible.
Cross Country
Easysland was a dominant winner 12mts ago but two things are different now. The ground will be much better (that’s not in his favour) and his season and build up to this have been somewhat hampered by injury/illness. So whilst he’s the most likely winner and probably the best horse in here I can’t be confident backing him.
Last year it was a two horse race so if Easysland doesn’t run to his best perhaps Tiger Roll is the obvious alternative. He’ll appreciate the drying spring ground and was himself a very easy winner of this in ’18 and ’19. Whilst I thought he wasn’t awful last time he needs to take a massive step forward. As an aside – his National mark of 166 was fair.
I like Potters Corner for the Grand National so would be eager to see a good showing here. If he doesn’t run well Some Neck is the most likely to fill the places – a repeat of his Dec win here would be enough but if any of the top 3 in the market run to their best Some Neck will be 25L behind.
No bet, or a small Tiger Roll
Grand Annual
Embittered is one of my best early handicap fancies. Now 6/1 it’s short enough but I think he’s the most likely winner and has course experience, class, well handicapped, can race prominent. Loads of positives. A novice he has had 4 starts over fences, behind two smart rivals and then 4th in two G1 novice chases. He’s been keeping good company and looking smart without giving too much away to the handicapper. He runs off 146, which for a 149 hurdler looks lenient. The 149 came after finishing 3rd in last year’s County Hurdle (Festival form), a race where the 1st & 2nd are now 18 & 14lbs higher. He was up with the pace in that race which wasn’t actually the best place to be, so the effort was tremendous. Being up with the pace will suit here on the old course.
I don’t fancy Sky Pirate, he has done his winning this season and 7lbs for the Warwick win looks harsh. Similar comments about Ibleo, I’d rather an unexposed sort laid out for the race than one who has won two handicaps already this season. Zanza coming in off the back of a fall, at Cheltenham, and few months off is hardly ideal. Entoucas doesn’t win very often and he was trying when beaten in his last three Irish handicaps. Us and Them might win even less than his stablemate, I don’t like him at all. Dus Des G prefers it softer and is still overrated after winning a Go-awful Arkle.
J Gainford claiming 7 off Chosen Mate would give him a chance. 156 seems harsh enough considering he was garbage all season but it’s still only 9lbs higher than last year and that was an impressive win. If they don’t claim I think he wouldn’t be handicapped to win. And it’s not a race I’d be mad to back an inexperienced jockey in either.
On The Slopes missed the cut for this race last year and if he had got in he’d have went close. He won at Kempton the day after instead. His form last spring was terrific. This season not so much but there appear to be excuses (wind-op) and the handicapper has given him a chance down 3lbs to 140. Having a spin on the flat as a warmup may just help keep him off the radar.
Not That Fuisse is in good form (in bumpers on the all-weather) after a wind-op. Skelton is a fella to respect in Festival handicaps. This guy will like good ground. He didn’t stay here over 2m4f in Oct. There’s plenty to like but I’m not certain he’s much better than his mark of 137.
Bun Doran if rediscovering some form could outrun big odds. 2nd off 149 in the 2019 renewal he was rated as high as 160 when competing in the Champion Chase last year but is now down to 150.
Bets: Embittered 6/1 & consider a saver on: Chosen Mate, On The Slopes, Bun Doran
Champion Bumper
Sir Gerhard has looked good, he was very impressive on the clock at Down Royal. Recent stable change may not be ideal. Kilcruit has looked better even if his last win was in a race that fell apart a little bit. Interesting that WP Mullins thought Ramillies was better than him prior to Leopardstown and again recently suggested he’ll get closer at Cheltenham.
Three Stripe Life has looked above average but the fancy prices are gone after a few mentioned him in previews. The right three horses head the market. I think Paul Townend might pick Sir Gerhard and he’ll go off favourite. No bet.
Wednesday summary: The price is just about gone on Bob Olinger, I’m happy to watch Monkfish, The Cross Country and the Bumper so that just leaves Chacun Pour Soi as my best favourite. And Notebook in the w/o market gives me a double interest. Embittered will be a big run too and I’ll have two stabs at the Coral Cup incl Botox Has. 3 betting races – quietest day betting.
Skip to Thursday: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/
Fri: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/friday-cheltenham-21/
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