Tuesday
Take you pick from this lot:
13.20 Appreciate It 11/8 or under 4L 10/3, Blue Lord e/w 10/1, For Pleasure ew 40/1
13.55 Shishkin wins, over 6 lengths.
14.30 Aye Right 11/2, Milan Native 9/1, Vintage Clouds 20/1
15.05 Honeysuckle 5/2, Aspire Tower 20/1 e/w
15.40 Roksana e/w 7/2, Minella Melody w/o fav 16/1. If you like the fav I like under 5L 10/3.
16.15 Elham Valley e/w 50/1
16.50 Next Destination 4/1 (best bet of the day)
Most of the rest of this was written a full week before the Festival so it may not be perfectly up to date but is still relevant…..
Supreme Nov Hurdle
The popular angle seems to be taking on Appreciate It as he wasn’t very impressive last time and looks a stayer who’ll appreciate longer trips. That latter point is true but he’s the best horse in here, 3 from 3 this season and the second-best bumper horse we saw last year. Anything better than 6/4 he’s a definitely a bet. Don’t mind the money back specials and each way extra places, back the winner. The likely strong pace with For Pleasure running is a big help to the favourite. Paul Townend went too slow on him last time so having something to take him along rather than having to make it is a boost.
Opposition is thin on the ground. Soaring Glory has at least a stone to find on his last effort. Metier hasn’t beaten much and the yard are struggling for form. Ballyadam won a poor Royal Bond and looks held by the fav even if improving for good ground. His recent stable change may not be a positive.
Blue Lord (if running here) is the best e/w alternative to the favourite. He was held up off a slow pace the last day which would never suit one who stays further. Ridden close to the pace (which will be much stronger) he can get close to Appreciate It. And give the Bob Olinger (Ballymore Wed) form a stronger look.
Other longshot each-way alternatives (especially if William Hill go with their usual 5/6 places) include Irascible, a year younger and far less experienced than Appreciate It when 2nd to him at Xmas; he will like the strong pace and stiff finish. And For Pleasure gets a mention too. A course & distance G2 winner in Nov with an official rating of 145 he’s better than the betting will suggest. More likely to get an uncontested lead here as well, he was hassled for it at Newbury last time.
Bet: Appreciate It to win 11/8+
Arkle Nov Chase
Ah what could’ve been – I’ll delete the paragrapgh on Energumene and we’ll move on.
In the without Shishkin market – Allmankind would be vulnerable to a hold up horse picking up the pieces. He also needs to jump around which doesn’t always look a given. Captain Guinness is possibly a better horse than Franco de Port, he’ll definitely have more pace than that rival on decent ground, but his prep wasn’t ideal with a silly fall.
Ultima Hcap Chase
Aye Right is solid out here. This season he was 3rd in the Charlie Hall, 2nd in the Ladbroke (winner has done well since) and 3rd in the SkyBet (jockey dropped whip in home straight). They are very similar competitive 3m handicap chases. He’s one of the best horses in here so won’t lack for class and will be ridden close to the pace out of trouble. Gets a minor jockey upgrade with Johnson replacing Bewley as well.
Musical Slave is my second choice. He didn’t have too hard a race last time and can be better for more effort. He was solid at Newbury in November also but it’s his run from Uttoxeter last March that catches my eye. He stayed on well for second that day so should enjoy this likely strong pace and stiff finish here. Note he’s just 2lbs higher now whilst the winner is deemed 18lbs better. Musical Slave hasn’t had the chance to show it yet.
Vintage Clouds best efforts have come in 3m1f handicap chases. Twice he has won off his current mark of 143. A mid-season wind-op helps explain some recent below par efforts. Stable form is a worry at the moment but he has finished 2nd & 3rd in previous renewals so this test obviously suits. He’ll be a decent price.
Milan Native, especially if they claim off him (J Gainford (7)) can go well. An impressive winner of the Kim Muir last year he also had a wind-op recently so should be able to bounce back to his best. Goose Man ran well in a strong Leopardstown handicap last time but I’m not sure he’s good enough to win in this company.
The main dangers are the unexposed and potentially well-handicapped novices but I don’t particularly like any of them. Happygolucky is just a little short on experience – I’d rather he had another start since December. His course win was a poor novice chase. Lieutenant Rocco does look capable of better but he also prefers softer ground than he’s likely to get. One for the Team was below his best the last twice. Escaria Ten hasn’t looked a graded chaser so 147 is a tough enough mark in my opinion.
Bets: Very much depends on the odds but Aye Right 10/1, Musical Slave 20/1 & Vintage Clouds 33/1 would appeal as e/w bets at double figure odds against the single figure novices.
Champion Hurdle
A great looking race after last year’s below average renewal. A repeat of Leopardstown makes Honeysuckle the one to beat. She was terrific the last day. In great form and the likely strong pace brings her stamina into play. Only concern is quick ground so lets see if there’s plenty of rain before backing her. Epatante’s win last year was the benchmark but off an average campaign she’s not too solid looking 12mts on. Better ground this season will suit.
Goshen isn’t one I’d like. This left-handed undulating track is the opposite of his trial win (form questionable). The new course of last year’s Triumph would’ve suited better also, he’ll need to jump fast and straight on this old course. The other one I don’t like is Silver Streak, rate SS on everything apart from Kempton at Xmas and conclude he has no chance.
Abacadabras can run well on a return to better ground. Ignore his sick at Xmas effort. Lots of pace on gives him a right target also, more so than in the Supreme where he found himself in front way too early, yet he still almost beat Shishkin. Unlikely to win but I’d be amazed if too many finishes ahead of him. Sharjah will like the combination of decent ground and strong pace but I doubt he’s good enough to get involved.
And Aspire Tower also looks much improved this year. He wasn’t right in the Triumph last year when hanging and jumping poorly. Another who’ll force the pace it’d be surprising if he was good enough to hold on. Christmas at Leopardstown was his first open company G1, whilst still a 4yo, so can improve from that. Prior to that he beat Abacadabras & Jason the Militant at Down Royal; he’s a G1 horse.
Bets: Honeysuckle to win 5/2+ (unless ground looks quick), Abacadabras & Aspire Tower e/w 4 places or w/o Honeysuckle or even place only – the latter looking the better value currently.
Mares Hurdle
I kind of want to be against Concertista, especially if she goes odds-on, but it is difficult with very little opposition. The mares novice hurdle she won last year was bang average (3out to the line in the same time as the Pertemps). This year she was impressive first time but then at Leopardstown Minella Melody went off way too hard in front and the race fell into her lap. The issue is there is really only one credible opponent.
Roksana’s 3 runs this season have been marginally better than what Concertista has done but they’ve all come over 3miles which is definitely her best trip. Her ‘held up in last’ tactic will be very difficult to execute coming back in trip and I worry if there is enough pace in it for her.
If Roksana does divert to the Stayers the fav is a good thing.
Dame de Compagnie hasn’t had the perfect prep for this running over fences. She looks very short at 6/1 now. Black Tears is solid if not quite top class. Indefatigable has been poor of late. Minella Melody’s best form could see her grab a place at a big price.
Bet: Roksana e/w 7/2, small play Minella Melody e/w or w/o fav.
Boodles Juvenile Hurdle
Couldn’t be confident here. Too many who haven’t shown everything yet. A guessing game that I’m unlikely to solve. Saint Sam and Houx Gris look likely to be graded class in time but neither have been missed by the market. Cabot Cliffs is looking unpopular, if he keeps drifting he’ll come on the radar.
I’ll chance a few e/w at fancy prices, maybe one of: Hell Red, Elham Valley, Tinnahalla, Her Indoors or Zoffanien.
National Hunt Chase
Galvin is a good horse and he has plenty of experience for a novice chaser and this has been the target all year, but he’s no superstar. His course win is Oct was a poor race. Recent stable change might be a minor negative.
Royal Pagaille doesn’t run here. I don’t fancy him Friday.
There’s very little depth to this race assuming we go without Dickie Diver, Next Destination (I’d give him a right shout here and would take him e/w if 3rd in the betting), Latest Exhibition, Escaria Ten (goes Ultima?) and Secret Reprieve (big chance in Grand National). There’s a few bits of form that suggest Lord Royal can step into graded company but he has been a disappointing sort and is not for me. The fav has shown so much more to date.
Bet: Royal Pagaille 6/4 or bigger assuming Next Destination doesn’t run here
Tues summary: Appreciate It (best bet), Honeysuckle, Royal Pagaille are the three favs I want on-side, price pending obviously and I’m happy to just watch Shishkin. Two e/w stabs at the Ultima and skip the Boodles. Quiet enough start, there are just so many unappealing betting races this year.
Skip to:
Wed: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/wednesday-cheltenham-21/
Thurs: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/
Fri: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/friday-cheltenham-21/
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