Thursday
Update = I’m coming around to Paisley Park @ 2/1. I think the Long Walk is the best piece of form and Thyme Hill & Roksana aren’t here. The two runs this year (gave 3lbs to TH when beaten the first day out) prove last March was a blip he is over. Course suits, strong pace is ideal. He’s the most likely winner. I’m on Fury Road & don’t like most of the others.
Envoi wins, 6L. I’ve backed Chatham Street Lad e/w in the without market but drying ground may not be ideal. Blackbow & Darver Star may now be the value in that market.
The Bosses Oscar will take beating in the Pertemps, he’s solid e/w 6 places. Spiritofthegames might run into a place as well from off the pace but I’m happy to chance two massive outsiders. Getaround 50/1 (more on him further on below) and Perfect Man 100/1 – a decent 5lb claimer up, a change of headgear (will race prominent) and his last effort wasn’t too bad (it wasn’t the strongest finishing effort by a jockey that I’ve seen). Keeper Hill 33/1 is another with new headgear, will like the decent ground and has dropped to an eyecatching mark.
The Ryanair is tricky: Min win, Melon e/w, or just No bet, would be my order of preference here.
The Shunter did rock up in the Plate. He has to recover from Kelso, stay this trip and I’m not sure sticking up a 7lb claimer was necessary. Couldn’t back him at sub 4/1.
Still like Caribean Boy, but unfortuantely I also like Sully Doc, Assemble, Huntsman Son & Paddys Poem. The latter is well overpriced at 25/1.
Despite money for Glens of Antrim & Tellmesomethinggirl and Townend riding Gauloise, I still like Royal Kahala, Hook Up & Roseys Hollow (in that order). Tricky race.
Musical Slave is the pick in the Kim Muir to finish Thursday.
The rest was written a few days ago:
Marsh Chase
Envoi Allen is a good thing (despite the recent change of yard). Winner here the last two years and a fairly flawless 3 from 3 over fences so far. Hard to find a negative. And it is not even about him being brilliant. There is simply no decent opposition. How Ballyadam runs might impact this fella’s price.
Shan Blue looks best of the rest but he was beaten in Sandown last time, having a hard race in the process. He gave a jumping exhibition when winning at Kempton but with just two fences in a long home straight here it won’t play to his strengths and he doesn’t have the engine to match the fav. He’ll also be vulnerable to a closer if Harry goes too hard to try stretch Envoi.
Chantry House has only run in small fields and hasn’t beaten much, I doubt he’s good enough to get involved. That exact comment probably covers Fusil Raffles as well.
I like Chatham Street Lad in the without market. An impressive course & distance winner in December he can travel well off the pace and challenge in the straight. His last effort wasn’t too bad as back in trip they went slow and it didn’t suit. Now back at his best trip and freshened up a little he can go from off the pace.
Bets: Envoi Allen 4/5, Chatham Street Lad w/o 7/1
Pertemps Hcap Hurdle
The Bosses Oscar has been targeting this race all the year but the UK handicapper has had his say. 13lbs higher than when 5th in the Martin Pipe. He’ll probably go close (the one of the 3 favs I like the most) but he hardly has too much in hand and alternatives can be found. Claiming off him would help.
Getaround is only a 6yo with 6 hurdle starts to his name. He won his first two before an ok G2 effort. Then in handicap company, off 136 he finished 4th at Lingfield. The winner won again and is now 9lbs higher, so did the 2nd now 6lbs higher, 3rd has won twice and is 15lbs higher today. Getaround is 1lb lower now. After that effort, back in novice company he gave weight and a beating to the 127 rated Ask a Honey Bee and Small Present who’s now rated 129 after winning twice. Beaten fav on his last start but with an excuse. There are not many as unexposed as this lad in what is a weak Pertemps final. There’s more than one line of form that suggests Getaround is well handicapped off 135.
Spiritofthegames races off 141 which compared to his chase mark of 145 gives him a squeak. His last three Festival appearances resulted in finishes of 536 in decent handicaps. The 6th was last year’s Plate off 149. He doesn’t win very often but is consistent with another 4 placed efforts at the track. In good form with a recent 1L defeat at Chepstow, decent festival record, likes Cheltenham, not terribly handicapped, if Harry rides he gets a jockey upgrade from Chepstow. There is plenty to like at 20/1 for all that he’ll again probably find one too good on the day.
I don’t think Imperial Alcazar won a particularly good race at Warwick last time and even through his decent novice form, a mark of 147 isn’t too lenient. I’d have him in the overrated pile.
Bets: Getaround 33/1, Spiritofthegames 20/1 – place only for the latter maybe
Ryanair Chase
I’m a Min fan, look at the number of G1 wins – he’s an elite 2m4f horse. But that last effort was so disappointing.
Lots of pace on here as he’ll be joined on the front by Allaho and Melon, which may not suit any of the three. But Min is quicker than them and that may put their jumping under pressure. I don’t think Melon’s overall form is strong enough, 3/21 over jumps even if his Festival form is a rock solid 2222. Place only bet type.
Allaho is similar to Melon, only winning 1 race each of the past three seasons. At Thurles Elimay was coming back from a break and ridden accordingly, that’s not strong enough form. He still needs to prove it for me. Who Paul Townend picks is a big factor, I’d want him on Min.
Imperial Aura hasn’t had a great prep not completing since November and that Ascot race wasn’t deep. Fakir D’oudairies bounced back to form last time but was helped by Notebook going too hard. His Arkle 2nd (and form behind Notebook & when Samcro looked to have his measure) and Supreme Hurdle effort would all suggest he’s probably not good enough to win an open G1 with plenty of depth to it.
Samcro wouldn’t be out of this if bouncing back to his best but that’s a fairly big if; he’s had his troubles.
Last year’s Ryanair was a strong race and if Min is as good again he’s the best of these. But Saint Calvados also enters calculations. That was a massive run last year (possibly unlucky) and whilst he has been below par this year (keen at Kempton and unseat at Sandown are forgivable) the yard are now in form after a bad start to the season. It’s a tricky race so two small plays.
Bets: Min 6/1, saver on Saint Calvados if greater than 10/1
Stayers Hurdle
Paisley Park and Thyme Hill (ugh, update) have met twice this year and it’s very hard to confidently split them. Their clash at Ascot is very strong form, stronger than any of the Irish pieces of form. Paisley will want as strong a test of stamina as possible so Sams Spinner, Lisnagar Oscar and Flooring Porter running will certainly help. But after last year’s mishap I’m not mad about taking short odds Paisley Park.
I can’t have Flooring Porter, he was given a solo around Leopardstown last time. And Lisnagar won a poor renewal last year and this looks deeper.
Sire du Berlais will love that strong pace and test of stamina also. A back-to-back course and distance Festival winner he’ll prove best of the Irish but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to move into G1 class if the UK runners run up to their best. Whether over fences or hurdles The Storyteller is often ridden to pick up the pieces and I think he’s a little overrated as a result.
If The Cap Fits isn’t good enough to get involved. It looks like Fury Road is going to run after a change of mind. A repeat of his Albert Bartlett effort alongside Thyme Hill (& Monkfish) would take beating. His defeat the last day was because Jack went too slow and got out sprinted. His defeat at Xmas came when the yard were struggling and it was a very slowly run affair. Trust his novice form.
Bets: Sire du Berlais is solid e/w (4 places) but 9/2 now looks too short. Fury Road 12/1 appeals as much better value.
The Plate
Farclas has an obvious chance but he’s no magical Irish plot. He was trying the last twice in decent handicap chases and whilst close he was beaten fairly. Solid choice but now 8/1 the value may be gone. It wouldn’t surprise if he’s not that popular and drifts on the day, he’d be an e/w at 12/1+. Often the ante-post obvious/popular pick drifts as everyone tries to find the alternatives.
Assemble is an Irish novice (good starting point) who’d be interesting if we could trust his jumping. A win only sort of horse.
I’ve a feeling The Shunter will run here but at the time of writing he still holds five entries. Other recent winners Umbrigado & Paddys Poem would have a chance but I’m not sure if they’ll turn up.
Midnight Shadow would be of interest with the yard rounding into form after a quiet winter. His course form is strong. Oldgrangewood is solid for the e/w punters at around 20/1. He was 4th last year and returns 1lb lower. He was held up last year and given plenty to do in a race that may have suited front runners.
Also of note from last year is Mister Whitaker. He belted the first fence but recovered to finish 3rd. He returns 3lbs lower which is generous as he has only ran twice since and wasn’t awful either time. His last effort was not the most trying aggressive performance I’ve seen so more can be expected at Cheltenham.
Huntsman Son was an impressive winner after a break first time out this season before bouncing on soft ground next time. Kept fresh for this he’d have a chance with decent ground his preference. A lightly raced 11yo so don’t be put off by the age – he’ll be a big price.
The final one to consider is Caribbean Boy. He only debuted in the UK 14mts ago but wasn’t long about opening his account off a mark of 138. When reappearing he had too much for Fiddlerontheroof (a disappointing but consistent high 140s sort). His Ascot effort was average (turned out too quickly is Nicky’s excuse) but the winner has since made it look better and last time at Sandown he was flat out over 2miles. Still a fair effort but the step up to 2m5f will allow him get involved at the business end. A 7yo with just 5 chase starts in the UK he fits the profile for this race – a classy sort we’ve not seen the best of him.
Bets: it’s difficult at this stage as I’d respect Umbrigado and The Shunter but Caribbean Boy 12/1, Mister Whitaker 16/1 would be the top two.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Royal Kahala wasn’t at her best last time at Fairyhouse yet was still just beaten 2L by Roseys Hollow. She gets a 9lb swing at Cheltenham so overturning the form shouldn’t be difficult. Previous to that she beat (whilst conceding 2lbs) Hook Up 5L at Fairyhouse. Now I do believe Hook Up went too early and may have been out-stayed over 2m2f but this 2m1f on the new course at Cheltenham suits those with some stamina.
I think Royal Kahala is the best mare in the race and will be suited by the test. Around 5/1 she is a right bet – one of my best of the week.
Roseys Hollow is a progressive mare and she’s the most likely to drift coming from a small yard if the Mullins or deBromhead horses are very popular. Anything around 7 or 8/1 on the day would be solid e/w bet especially if we get 4 places. Be interesting to see if Mark Walsh picks Glens of Antrim ahead of her.
Kim Muir
Hold the Note ran well at last year’s Festival and on his last start. Two key pieces on the form study but he’s not a consistent sort or regular winner so 10/1 looks fairly skimpy.
Time to Get Up is appealing but around 4/1 looks very short. Just the six racecourse starts for him an 8lb rise for his last easy win is unlikely to halt his progress.
Shantou Flyer has a very good course record but this is stronger than any of the races he featured in for the past 3yrs. He’s not well handicapped.
An early shortlist would look like: Time to Get Up, Plan of Attack (4th last year, 1lb lower, this may have been a season long plan), Musical Slave (quiet season, well handicapped on Uttox 2nd), Destinee Royale (recent impressive winner, looks to stay well and lightly enough raced so could be open to more improvement), Mount Ida (back Gordon novices in the handicaps strategy).
Thursday summary: Envoi Allen wins. A few stabs at the Pertemps, Plate & Kim Muir. That’s already a lot of bets. I really like Royal Kahala and will have plays on Min & Fury Road. A lot of bets – turnover Thursday.
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