Friday
Summary for the lazy:
Zanahiyr will be popular with a few Irish fav multiples rolling onto him. I’d prefer chancing Quilixios e/w 9/2 or greater. Although drying ground would be a worry.
Ganapathi is the right fav, wouldn’t put you off. Fifty Ball 14, Cayd Boy 20, Saint D’Oroux 22 complete the shortlist.
No idea on the Albert Bartlett. Gold Cup is a 4 horse race – I’ll chance Minella Indo ahead of Champ.
It Came to Pass will love the drying ground. Elimay wins. Gabynako gone very short now (Naas form worked out very well) so I’ll suggest Mill Green e/w & Dolciani Dici for those who need a 100/1 shot to get out for the week.
The rest of this was written 4/5 days ago but is all still relevant….
Triumph Hurdle
Across the four days the Irish challenge is so strong this looks to be one of the few Irish v UK battles. Tritonic & Adagio versus Zanahyir & Quixilos.
Tritonic didn’t beat much last time and if he had done that in December and been off since he’d be twice the price here. Recency bias they call it. He’s beaten the same average horse both times and his jumping wasn’t perfect last time. Terrible price at 5/2. Adagio might actually have better form and he’ll stay well. But overall I prefer the Irish form.
I’m not convinced by Zanahiyr. Especially if he is sub 2/1 on the day. Here’s why – at Fairyhouse he had the benefit of a run and 4lbs but most importantly was Saint Sam looked to blow up and wasn’t hard ridden when beaten. Then at Xmas the race was a crawl-sprint and Jack gave him a smart ride. He ultimately beat two Irish debutants as Saint Sam got a poor ride. Good on the clock at Fairyhouse and winning two different types of races but there’s plenty of holes to be picked in the form.
Arguably the form of Quilixios beating Saint Sam (was keen but his best effort) and Busselton (should’ve improved from his debut) is the strongest piece of 4yo form available. The old stable rated Zanahiyr higher and they’d know more than me and moving to a new stable isn’t a positive but I still might chance Quilixios around 6/1. A strong galloping staying type the new course will suit him, more rain/watering the better, and I expect him to be on the pace out of trouble.
Bets: Quilixios 6/1
County Hurdle
How many Irish horses can I like here. Four strong shortlist to begin with: Cayd Boy, Éclair de Beafeu, Saint D’oroux, Ganapathi. Fifty Ball also makes the shortlist but he may miss the cut and Champagne Gold would enter calculations, but he might go Martin Pipe I think. Similarly if either The Shunter or Blue Lord turn up here they’d be respected.
Cayd Boy looks to have been put away for this after a decent effort at Fairyhouse. Behind him that day was the unlucky Drop the Anchor who went on to win the fiercely competitive Betfair Hurdle. He’s a lightly raced 6yo that we’ve not seen the best of yet. He won a big field handicap hurdle first time out at Down Royal so coming in fresh is no bad thing and this test should be fine for him.
Éclair de Beafeu’s recent handicap hurdle form isn’t good enough but like many of Gordon’s he’ll run better on the big day. Jack didn’t give him a great ride when he fell at the last in this race in 2019 (off 136). Then last year he finished 2nd in the Grand Annual (off 149) so his Festival record is decent and a mark of 139 doesn’t look too bad.
Saint D’oroux was 3rd in the Fred Winter (Festival form) and 3rd in the Betfair at Leopardstown (recent form) last time. A solid looking 5yo.
Ganapathi fits the bill as a WP Mullins novice. He was unlucky when 2nd in Punchestown as they went too hard early and got picked up by a closer (he also hit the last). Then he looked a non-stayer in G1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. A result of those two efforts is the handicapper had to let him away light. He’s better than 140 and a strongly run 2m should suit.
Bets: Ganapathi 10/1, Cayd Boy 20/1
Albert Bartlett
This was 3 paragraphs about how good a bet Ashdale Bob was. Now he’s not running. Great…
No idea now. It’s hard to make a case for one over another, there’s no standout candidate.
Bet: tbd
Gold Cup
Al Boum Photo bids for history but he didn’t look terrific at Tramore and this is definitely the strongest Gold Cup of the 3 he has competed in. They went very slow last year and he benefited from a good ride. The previous year was a solid test so he’ll be fine with the likely strong pace set by Native River & Frodon. I’d guess the form of either race isn’t as strong as this one if M Indo, Champ & A Plus Tard all run to their best.
A Plus Tard won a good race at Christmas but he’d have been 3rd if Kemboy & Melon were ridden better. I just don’t think he’s good enough on everything we’ve seen – beaten in novice G1, 3rd in Ryanair.
Champ is good enough to win a Gold Cup but I have two (very differing) concerns. 1) He might be too free and fresh early wasting energy – strong pace helps negate this. 2) He might struggle to hold his place and go with faster horses when/if there is a pace injection like in last year’s RSA – new course will suit him better perhaps. Having two concerns and not being a great fan of the jockey doesn’t help.
Santini looks an awful yak this season and for all Native River might run well the likely drying ground will mean a few go faster than him in the last mile. Frodon isn’t good enough and won a weak King George with a shrewd ride.
Kemboy would have a chance on his best pieces of form but they all came whilst dominating off the front. Going quicker than Frodon & Native River is possible (Danny will try it I bet) but it may be too hard. And his Cheltenham record raises questions.
Minella Indo is my pick. I think if Rachael had last year’s RSA back again she’d win it more times than not. A classy lightly raced horse he had the perfect profile (strong stayer, G1 hurdler) until making an uncharacteristic error at Christmas. That meant he needed another outing which wasn’t in Henry’s original plan so the DRF effort wasn’t him at 100% and the plan was just a clear round. I wasn’t great but it was ok. A return to his best at Cheltenham and not many will finish ahead of him.
Bet: Minella Indo 12/1
Hunters Chase
One of the most impressive winners of last year’s Festival was It Came to Pass. He had 10L to spare over Billaway. He preceded that effort with a pulled-up in a Kilfeacle point to point. So, should we be concerned with his recent poor Thurles effort – nope. He was very much minded the last day too. The ground will be even better this year than it was 12mts ago.
Billaway has had a good season but his jumping isn’t always perfect. Bob and Co also looks a serious threat (good on the clock last time apparently) but preference is for the one who has been there and done it.
Bet: It Came to Pass 9/1
Mares Chase
A new introduction and not a very wise one as it looks a particularly weak affair with a Mullins/McManus favourite likely to take all the beating. Elimay is small but she is talented. She beat Shattered Love with ease at Naas and whilst SL will appreciate this longer trip I think there’s a gulf in class between them.
Annie Mc is well below the form required. Magic of Light is good but wants much further to be at her best and Happy Diva excels over course & distance but was poor last time.
7/4 currently and it’ll only get shorter as the race looks so weak. Only the fences can stop Elimay. Update – Colreevy looks set to run. She’s a credible opponent, especially if more rain comes. She’ll carry a penalty for her G1 win though and does lack the experience of her stablemate.
Bet: Elimay 7/4 or bigger
Martin Pipe Hcap Hurdle
The finale. Be well ahead by now, it’s a tricky getting out stakes if you’re not. 3 of the first 4 home last year were 25/1 or more.
Mill Green was an eyecatcher in the Martin Pipe last year. He badly missed the (standing) start and was given far too much to do then with the whole field still in front of him 3out but flew home for 6th. Back off the same mark as he had a flat and chase start since – the latter was a fine effort.
For team Elliott/Foster if Column of Fire found some form he’ll go close and Saint D’oroux is a solid type whilst Floueur money would be noteworthy. My Sister Sarah a WPM longshot I could make a case for.
Irish novices look to dominate the market, as they often do here, and it’s easy to make a case for all of: Gentleman de Mee, Eskylane (will he get in?), Wide Receiver, Champagne Gold and Ganapathi (County more likely). But my pick is Gabynako.
He has a bit more experience that all of those, including in a big field handicap hurdle last time where he wasn’t off a yard. Stepping back in trip he was dropped in and never had much chance of reaching the business end. Expect a more prominent and aggressive ride next week. Conor McNamara is apparently booked and he’ll be one of the better jockeys in the race. This has been the plan from a shrewd yard. Off 141 his form with Fakiera, Ashdale Bob and Bob Olinger suggests he’s not far off graded class. If the three of them are well beaten earlier in the week there may be a change of plan here!
Friday summary: The two handicap hurdles are tricky and the Albert Bartlett is wide open so ‘careful now’. Elimay and It Came to Pass my main plays and Minella Indo for Gold. 7 Irish winners on Friday.
Tues: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/tuesday-cheltenham-21/
Wed: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/wednesday-cheltenham-21/
Thurs: https://ceebeeracing.sport.blog/2021/03/11/thursday-cheltenham-21/
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