1.30 Aintree – Becher Chase – this is always an extreme stamina test. A combination of the soft ground, extended trip and usual strong pace over the National fences.
I’d worry about the trip for Aso, Jett & Coo Star Sivola. On recent form we can rule out Joe Farrell and with no run in near 2yrs Calett Mad goes too.
Yala Enki will like the test but isn’t handicapped to win. I’m tempted to say the same of Ramses De Teillee – their last clash is a race that looks to have had only two run their race. Minellacelebration got 12lbs for a Veterans Chase win, happy to avoid him.
Kimberlite Candy I’d guess might have an eye on the National and just be out for the spin on seasonal reappearance. The market hasn’t missed Walk in the Mill but at 8lbs higher than last year’s winning mark (12lbs higher than 2018s) he’s not exactly chucked in here. Calipso Collognes racing from 3lbs wrong doesn’t look good enough in this company.
That only leaves 4.
My initial thought was age may have caught up with course specialist Vieux Lion Rouge but he lost a shoe in last year’s renewal so maybe that is a useable excuse. Pipe has his yard going well so far this winter and off a lower mark than when he won and was 2nd in this he’s certainly not badly handicapped. He’ll handle the unique test and be trained to the minute for it. An each-way pick at 16/1.
Le Breuil is well handicapped having been stink all last season. Blame the yard’s form but then you got to trust it now and I’m not so sure. Especially as near favourite.
Give Me A Copper goes well fresh so no issue with fitness first time up, this will have been the target. How well handicapped he is off 146 and how his fragile wind will hold up if it gets very testing, I’m not so sure. Win only saver around 12/1 perhaps.
Smooth Stepper is getting on a bit now but what we know after all the years is once he goes beyond 3miles on soft or heavy ground he has a chance. His seasonal reappearance was a fine effort over 3m on good ground. Prior to that he won the Grand National Trial over 3m4f on heavy (Yala Enki 3rd) with the 2nd going well at Cheltenham next time. There may not be much room in his mark but having won off 136 & 138, today’s 142 is hardly impossible. 20/1 is an each-way bet.
Any bookie going each-way 5 places in a 15 runner race – that is a generous offer.
12.20 Aintree – Bigmartre has slipped from 149 13mts ago to 137 now. And has a 10lb claimer on board for good measure. Assuming he needed his reappearance and we’ve not yet seen the benefit of the wind-op last spring there’s enough in there for me to have a swing at a big price. Admittedly his best form is on good ground in the spring and this is the polar opposite. 18/1 first show.
2.40 Aintree – I like Santini here. In his favour are the trip, ground and likely strong pace. I’m glad to see the cheekpieces on again. There’s an argument to waiting and backing him in running as he’s not a great traveller but I fancy he’ll make bits of these. So lightly raced there’s improvement in him and Nicky surely has him ready by now. Blinkers and mud will help but Native River off 300 days and yard in questionable form. Frodon’s best successes have come dictating from the front, often against inferior opposition, he gets neither here.
3.15 Aintree – Might Bite ran quite well at Ascot (form held up since) until tiring in the straight. Stepping back in trip will be a major help to him. This is a front runners race and staying well, over 2m5f, is imperative. He’s obviously not a reliable sort so win only. 16/1
Frederici has some form over these fences having been 4th & 5th in the Becher Chase. If this turns into a real messy slog (possible as the last race of the day) he might last home best of all. Showed himself to be in fine form winning in October, despite turning 12 next month. 33/1
Last year’s fifth Didero Vallis might run well again at 12/1 but the shortlist could be long enough here.
Over at Sandown it’ll be a watching brief for the G1 Novice Chase and whilst I want to oppose Altior I doubt I’ll find an angle/bet. The favourites in the last two, Cloudy Glen & Mister Coffey both deserve their short price and are hard to oppose for all that Crosspark is in good form and will aprreicte this trip more. Both Nickolson & Benson could also be well handicapped, a pass from me.
At Chepstow I backed Desie Aba for the Welsh National so a solid 2nd or 3rd in the Trial will be ideal.
Navan – no prices yet so bit of a guessing game.
11.30 – Ceasar Rock back in trip in the first might be worth a small bet at a huge price. He ran fairly well first time out until not quite getting home.
1.08 Tout Est Permis is rock solid in these handicap hurdles he’s just a bit short of pace and always places. Shattered Love looks thrown in but she’s built to be a far better chaser than hurdler and this trip may not be her optimum. The Bosses Oscar likely to take some beating. He was unlucky at Cheltenham and is unexposed in handicaps. Big field and plenty in with chances for a decent pot.
1.43 I want to oppose The Big Getaway. Not convinced he is straightforward and in time he’ll want further and softer. Sempo achieved as much as him over fences but Joseph’s jumpers haven’t been going well so preference may be for the experienced Opposites Attract who was beaten in two equally hot beginners chases.
2.18 Embittered may have achieved as much as the often overrated and underpriced Andy Dufresne over hurdles. If Joesph’s fella can take a step forward from his reappearance he’ll go close here.
Cee Bee Scribbles 