You call it the Ladbrokes Trophy if you want and I’ll get the filthy after-time in early, I tipped De Rasher Counter at 33/1 ante-post on 1st Nov last year.
One by One:
Topofthegame has 6-8lbs in hand based on Delta Work & Santini. Both only if he runs to his very very best. It took those two a few runs to get up to the new higher ratings. So firstly he’ll need to make it back to the top level from a serious injury . Going straight there it’ll be just his 5th chase start. After 19 months off. He may be a 170 chaser by next March but for me he’s easily opposed here at single figures.
Copperhead that Ascot form may not be too reliable. And he got a fair rise for it. His hurdles reappearance was stink.
The Conditional is 10lbs higher than last year’s 2nd and 8lbs higher than Ultima bunched finish win. Hardly well handicapped. Could run well but something beats him.
Kildisart has a 3lb swing with The Conditional for a neck defeat in the Ultima. He’s possibly still got a lb or two in hand as the Pauling yard were awful last season. His reappearance over hurdles was decent. Leading player.
De Rasher Counter is too high, not convinced last year’s renewal was that good and decent 5lb claim on the day was massive. His hurdle reappearance was better than expected so in good form he could run very well again but not handicapped to win.
Sam Brown was favourite for the Reynoldstown but didn’t go a yard on the day. Easy 2/2 in other chases (incl 3m on heavy) means he may be classy and still very much unexposed. Although only 8 career starts may leave him inexperienced. Bumper form was top drawer and didn’t get a chance to show his worth over hurdles. His prep, conceding weight to all, at Carlisle was a perfectly fine reappearance. This has been mentioned as the target so I assume still is.
Regal Encore will go to Ascot next. Wholestone, Benatar, Champagne Court (Wincanton bound), Black Op & Spiritofthegames will not appreciate this 3m2f trip. Ballyoptic was bad last weekend. Yala Enki is prepping for the Welsh National. Vinndication was a little disappointing last weekend as well – wouldn’t think he jumps quick/straight enough for a big field handicap.
Slate House would be interesting as a G1 winning novice last term but he looks to be heading for the Paddy Power first. His pace might be better for that trip than this longer one. Siruh du Lac (moved yard) surely goes Paddy Power first too. And is unlikely to want this trip.
I think Secret Investor was ready to go at Chepstow when many were not. There’s not enough in his formbook to suggest a big win off 159 is likely. Stablemate Truckers Lodge got a stone for his Midlands National win, that’s a fair chunk that’ll take something special to overcome. Chepstow a better target perhaps?
Ok Corral and Beware the Bear (twice 4th) would need a career best a month shy of their 11th birthday, not for me. Mister Malarky is an inconsistent exposed looking handicapper now.
Imperial Aura will get a few lbs for his Carlisle win and connections won’t fancy this (confirmed today). Coo Star Sivola is off a long time.
Blaklion and La Bague Au Roi are regressive and hard to fancy. Ardlethen finished lame last weekend. Flying Angel is not good enough.
Aye Right got 4lbs for his Charlie Hall effort. It’s probably lenient enough. Rated 146 he finished 5L behind a 161 and beat 152/147 rated horses a long way. Granted many underperformed in the Charlie Hall but an 8lb raise may have been warranted. Unexposed in staying handicaps it’s no surprise the fancy prices are going today. He was quite inexperienced as a 7yo when a decent enough 5th in the RSA. He certainly has the right profile for this. Even his Kelso reappearance form is strong.
Danny Whizzbang has a likeable profile. 7yo second season chaser, not exposed in handicaps, won a 3m novice chase at this Newbury meeting last year. That day he was the outsider of 3 as his rivals had winning chasing experience so it was a decent run. His following two efforts in good novice company were a little disappointing but with previous wind problems perhaps first time is the best time to catch him. He goes to Wincanton though.
Two for Gold was beaten favourite on his recent seasonal reappearance but over a less than optimum trip I think it was an ok prep for the Hennessy. He got 2lbs for it though which could make all the difference. Another of last year’s better staying novice chasers he’s on the shortlist. If the Reynoldstown wasn’t his true running, and there’s a fair chance it wasn’t as Ascot was a bog that day, it wouldn’t surprise were he to land a big handicap. I’d like to see him ridden with more restraint and jump straighter than last time. 20/1 might interest many.
Hold The Note finished a half length behind Two For Gold in a January Novice Chase (Whatmore in 3rd has held up the form as solid). A 3lb swing for HTN will help here. He followed that run with a good 3rd in the Novice Handicap at Cheltenham. As a 6yo. If the extended 3m2f is to his benefit he can win off this mark. This guy was disappointing on his most recent appearance but all the chasers from that yard have badly needed their first outing. Still a novice they might find something easier for him.
Kapcorse, Cloth Cap, The Mighty Don, Potterman, The Hollow Ginge, Django Django & Lamanver Pippin – can we just say they are not good enough and move on. Shout if one of them require a second (or first) look.
In summary –
Back: Sam Brown 33/1 e/w and Aye Right 16/1 e/w
Might be worth a bet if target confirmed: Hold the Note 50/1
Could easily run into a place at a decent price: Kildisart 20/1, De Rasher Counter 25/1
Cee Bee Scribbles 